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A last-ditch attempt by Europe to revive the Iranian nuclear deal has stoked speculation that millions of barrels of oil are set to flood world markets. The return could be swift if Tehran’s previous comeback is any guide.
Should an agreement materialize, Iran could ramp up sales within months, raising supply by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day before the end of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. That would help relieve a tight global market, which has been roiled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
When sanctions were eased following the 2015 deal, Iran’s crude output was restored more quickly and more completely than analysts had predicted. With no evidence of damage to oil fields or facilities, that feat may be repeated. The Persian Gulf nation also has an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and condensate in storage that can be released to the market almost immediately.
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