Thursday 13 April 2023

Recession Odds, Inflation Fears Jump as US-#Saudi Oil Pact Breaks Down - Bloomberg

Recession Odds, Inflation Fears Jump as US-Saudi Oil Pact Breaks Down - Bloomberg


Just three years ago, when OPEC+ oil giants fell out, the US found itself playing the role of peacemaker. Now it looks more like their target.

The Saudi-Russia oil alliance has the potential to cause all kinds of trouble for the US economy — and even for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign. This month’s OPEC+ decision to cut crude output, for the second time since Biden flew to Saudi Arabia last summer seeking an increase, may be just the start.

That April 2 announcement, which lifted oil prices by about $5 a barrel, already means recession risks are bigger than they otherwise would have been — because consumers spending more on energy will have less cash left for other stuff — and inflation will be higher. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, gets a bigger war-chest to fund his attack on Ukraine.

But more significant is what the OPEC+ move says about the likely path of oil prices over the coming years.

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