A rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia this week provided further evidence of a shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus that is propelling gas-rich Azerbaijan closer to Russia, analysts said.
The process that began when Georgia went to war with Russia last summer over its breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, could jeopardise European plans to reduce dependence on Russian gas by importing extra Caspian supplies. Azerbaijan views the announcement on Wednesday by its ally Turkey and historic foe Armenia of plans to normalise ties as a betrayal that would leave it relatively isolated in the South Caucasus, where Armenia already enjoys strong ties with Russia and Iran.
Ilham Aliev, the president of Azerbaijan, has intensified pressure on Turkey, suggesting during a visit to Moscow this month for talks about gas and the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh, that a Turkish betrayal could hit bilateral gas trade.
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