Growth forecasts for Eastern Europe deteriorated again this month, and remain firmly entrenched in the downward trajectory that started in January 2012. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists cut their projections by 0.1 percentage points over the last month and now expect regional GDP to expand 2.3% in 2013, marking the 11th downward revision to the regional outlook in the past 12 months. The deteriorating prospects reflect lower growth forecasts for eight out of the 14 countries surveyed, including Poland and Russia, which together account for more than half of the regional average. Meanwhile, the outlook for three economies (Croatia, Lithuania and Turkey) was left unchanged, while panellists raised their growth forecasts for another three countries (Hungary, Latvia and Romania). For 2014, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 3.2%, which is also down a notch from last month's projection.
The deteriorating outlook for Eastern Europe comes within a global context of lower growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the BRIC economies, which more than offset upward revisions to Japan and the United Kingdom. The outlook for the United States remained unchanged over the previous month, with news mostly focused on the possible timing and pace of the Federal Reserve's exit strategy from its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated on 19 June that monetary authorities may start tapering the QE program later this year, triggering tensions in financial markets that drove yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to the highest levels in three years, before a downward revision to first quarter GDP growth figures eased concerns that the Fed will withdraw its stimulus in the near future...
The deteriorating outlook for Eastern Europe comes within a global context of lower growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the BRIC economies, which more than offset upward revisions to Japan and the United Kingdom. The outlook for the United States remained unchanged over the previous month, with news mostly focused on the possible timing and pace of the Federal Reserve's exit strategy from its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated on 19 June that monetary authorities may start tapering the QE program later this year, triggering tensions in financial markets that drove yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to the highest levels in three years, before a downward revision to first quarter GDP growth figures eased concerns that the Fed will withdraw its stimulus in the near future...
Excerpt from July 2013 edition of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Eastern Europe. Full text available for purchase in our Online Store.
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