Most Gulf markets in red on uncertainty over US policies | Reuters

Most Gulf markets in red on uncertainty over US policies | Reuters

Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on Monday, weighed by a mix of geopolitical and policy worries — ranging from U.S.–NATO tensions over Greenland and uncertainty around tariffs to growing questions about the Federal Reserve's independence.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would slap a 100% tariff on Canada if it went ahead with a trade agreement with China.

He has also threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne, seemingly to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron to sign on to his Board of Peace initiative.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab reversed early losses to finish flat.

The Saudi stock market's recent rebound lost steam, with investors turning cautious ahead of additional fourth-quarter earnings releases and ongoing regional geopolitical tensions, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

Crude prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - edged higher on Monday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session, as output disruptions in major U.S. crude-producing regions and tensions between the U.S. and Iran boosted prices.

According to Takieddine, the uptick in oil prices remains shaky amid concerns about a possible oversupply in 2026, though a sustained rise in crude could ultimately lift market sentiment.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab lost 0.2%.

U.S. President Donald Trump briefly calmed markets last week by walking back tariff threats and softening his rhetoric on possible military action involving Greenland. But fresh sanctions aimed at Iran have renewed investor concerns.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab declined 0.6%, dragged down by a 1% slide in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab and a 1.7% retreat in toll operator Salik Company (SALIK.DU), opens new tab.

The market's underlying fundamentals remain strong and growth forecasts for the year are upbeat, indicating that the rally could regain traction if fourth-quarter earnings come in favorably, said Takieddine.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI), opens new tab, however, rose 1.2%, clawing back most of its losses from the previous session.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab advanced 1.4%, reaching a new record high.

Aramco Starts First Bond Sale of This Year as Oil Prices Lag - Bloomberg

Aramco Starts First Bond Sale of This Year as Oil Prices Lag - Bloomberg

Aramco is launching its first bond sale of the year, just as oil prices remain well below levels needed to balance Saudi Arabia’s budget.

The government-owned oil producer is marketing debt with maturities ranging from three to 30 years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified. The company plans to invest more than $50 billion this year in supporting and expanding oil and natural gas production, while maintaining its high base dividend of $21 billion.

Saudi Arabia’s budget remains heavily dependent on oil revenue as the kingdom pursues an ambitious modernization drive that has forced the government to project spending shortfalls for the coming years. Aramco is a key contributor to state finances, with large dividend payments supplementing royalties linked to crude sales.

Initial pricing though ranges from about 100 basis points over US Treasuries for the three-year tranche to about 165 basis points for the longer maturity. The market expects the bond sale will raise about $2 billion.

While Brent crude has risen this year amid geopolitical tensions, including US attacks on or threats of action against fellow OPEC producers Venezuela and Iran, the global benchmark lost almost 20% in value last year.

Brent was trading just at about $66 a barrel on Monday, while Saudi Arabia needs levels above $90 a barrel to balance its budget under current spending plans.

Aramco’s gearing — a measure of indebtedness — remains low relative to industry peers, and the company plans to gradually raise it, Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed said on conference calls this year. Aramco has also signaled that further debt sales are planned.

Adnoc increases stake in Rio Grande LNG project in Texas

Adnoc increases stake in Rio Grande LNG project in Texas

Abu Dhabi’s state oil company Adnoc has increased its stake in the Rio Grande liquefied natural gas project in Texas, as it seeks to expand in the US and become one of the world’s largest integrated gas suppliers. 

XRG, the overseas investment arm of Adnoc, said on Monday it had bought a 7.6 per cent equity interest in the second phase of Rio Grande from Global Infrastructure Partners (Gip), a division of the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock. 

Rio Grande is being developed by NextDecade, a US LNG company, with financial backing from Gip, XRG, TotalEnergies and several other partners. Construction on the first phase of the project in Brownsville, Texas, began in 2023 and is anticipated to begin production in 2027. Phase 2 is likely to be substantially complete by 2031, according to NextDecade. 

XRG did not disclose the acquisition price for the stake in phase 2, which will build two trains capable of processing about 12mn tonnes of LNG per year. NextDecade forecasts this will cost just over $13bn. 

The deal follows XRG’s purchase in September 2024 of an 11.7 per cent stake in the first phase of Rio Grande which, when all phases are complete, is expected to be one of the world’s largest LNG facilities with capacity to ship up to 60mn tonnes of the super-chilled fuel per year. 

“By growing our presence in US LNG, we are strengthening a resilient, globally scaled gas platform while further deepening the UAE — US energy partnership — supporting energy security, jobs and investment-driven growth,” said Mohamed Al Aryani, president of XRG’s international gas business. 

XRG’s latest investment in Rio Grande comes as investors have become more bearish on LNG developers owing to concerns about a looming supply glut caused by the rapid expansion of facilities in the US and Qatar. Shares in NextDecade have fallen by just over 50 per cent in the past six months, as numerous energy forecasters have warned prices are set to fall. 

XRG was created by Adnoc in November 2024 as an $80bn vehicle to buy up international gas, chemicals and low-carbon energy businesses. It aims to become a top-five integrated global gas and LNG business, targeting 20mn-25mn tonnes per year of capacity by 2035.

Middle Eastern energy groups have stepped up activity in the US over the past two years, as they build a presence in the world’s largest LNG export nation and respond to Donald Trump’s call for increased foreign investment. The White House said in March that the UAE had committed to invest $1.4tn in the US over a decade following meetings in Washington between senior UAE and US officials and a dinner with vice-president JD Vance. 

In April, Mubadala Energy, owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign investor Mubadala, said it would buy a 24.1 per cent stake in energy-focused asset manager Kimmeridge’s shale gas production business in Texas and its Commonwealth liquefied natural gas export terminal in Louisiana.