Currency News: Dollar Peg Wobbles for Saudi, U.A.E., Oman, Qatar - Bloomberg:
Although the decades-old currency pegs of the Gulf Arab region often come under strain in depressed oil markets, they always have survived. This time, however, energy prices are at historic lows and the coronavirus outbreak has unleashed recessions that are squeezing government budgets like never before. With some of the Gulf currencies under pressure from speculators, are the pegs facing their sternest test?
1. How are the pegs under pressure?
As Saudi Arabia embarked on an oil-price war in March by boosting crude production, traders were betting through the derivatives market that the region’s currencies would weaken within a year. Such a scenario is possible only if countries abandon their currency pegs. Fixed exchange-rate regimes in Asia were swept away during the currency crisis of the late 1990s, when speculators forced the likes of Thailand and South Korea to abandon their links with the dollar. Currency pegs are now largely confined to the major oil producers in the Middle East which appear unwilling to let them go.
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