High-Stakes Oil Diplomacy Puts Future of OPEC+ Deal at Risk - Bloomberg

High-Stakes Oil Diplomacy Puts Future of OPEC+ Deal at Risk - Bloomberg

A high-stakes game of oil diplomacy pits Saudi Arabia against long-time ally Abu Dhabi. And the result of their fight will shape not just the price of oil for the next year, but the future of the global energy industry.

The United Arab Emirates on Friday blocked an OPEC+ deal that cartel leaders Russia and Saudi Arabia hashed out to increase output, demanding better terms for itself. After two days of bitter negotiations, and with the UAE the only holdout, ministers halted the discussions until Monday, leaving markets in limbo as oil continued its inflationary surge above $75 a barrel.

Despite diplomatic talks continuing, the standoff appeared to persist on Sunday, with the UAE reiterating its demands.

Abu Dhabi is forcing its allies into a difficult position: accept its requests, or risk unraveling the OPEC+ alliance. Failure to reach a deal would squeeze an already tight market, potentially sending crude prices sharply higher. But a more dramatic scenario is also in play -- OPEC+ unity may break down entirely, risking a free-for-all that would crash prices in a repeat of the crisis last year.

As in all negotiations, there may be an element of bluff. Late last year, Abu Dhabi even floated the idea of leaving OPEC. While this time the UAE hasn’t repeated the threat, no one even at the heart of the talks is sure what could happen if negotiations fail on Monday.

An exit would almost certainly trigger a price war -- and in that scenario everyone loses. The bluff is to show your country is ready to take the pain better than the others.

But there’s also a more subtle poker game playing out, and in that hand, the UAE has some cards. The country wants to pump more oil after spending billions to increase production capacity. At some point, the others in the alliance will probably have to recognize Abu Dhabi’s new status, redrawing the terms of engagement to allow it to pump more.

“The UAE will push hard at this juncture to use this meeting to get their excess capacity recognized and brought back online,” said Roger Diwan, oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd. “Compromise exists, but it is just how they bring their capacity, not if.”