With world in energy shock, #Saudi oil cushion gets very thin | Reuters

With world in energy shock, Saudi oil cushion gets very thin | Reuters

When French President Emmanuel Macron whispered in Joe Biden's ear last month that top global oil exporter Saudi Arabia has very little additional capacity to increase output, the U.S. President looked surprised.

Biden is due to land in Riyadh later this month, and he will likely hear the same sobering message – don't count much on Saudi Arabia to help replace Russian oil.

How much Saudi Arabia – seen as the "central bank" of global oil - can really pump is an industry secret and scepticism on this usually grows at times of high oil prices and strained global production. The kingdom, which says it can pump 12 million barrels per day, has regularly proved its doubters wrong in the past.

But as the world faces one of its worst ever supply crises, industry insiders, OPEC sources and other experts are asking whether, with current output of at least 10.5 million bpd, Saudi Arabia really has another 1.5 million bpd up its sleeve that can be brought online quickly and sustained.

Adding to scepticism about spare capacity, Saudi Arabia has been pumping below its OPEC quota despite near-record oil prices, and OPEC figures show drilling of new wells in the kingdom last year remained well below pre-pandemic levels.