OPEC+ Sticks With Plans to Pause Output Hikes in Early 2026 - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Sticks With Plans to Pause Output Hikes in Early 2026 - Bloomberg

OPEC+ will stick with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter, amid growing signs of a surplus in global oil markets.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia confirmed the three-month supply pause, first announced at the start of this month, following a set of video conferences on Sunday. They reiterated in a statement that the decision reflected expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies also approved a mechanism for its review of members’ individual production capacities, a sensitive process that will help set quotas in 2027. They picked Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton Corp. for most assessments.

While the pause on output hikes indicates some caution by the alliance after it rapidly revived oil production earlier this year, it still leaves world markets on track for a significant excess in early 2026, which is likely to put further pressure on prices.

“OPEC+ opted to hold fire and maintain its current strategy,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly.”

Oil futures have declined 15% this year to trade near $63 a barrel in London, as booming supply from the Americas in tandem with the OPEC+ hike exceeds demand growth. The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts a record glut in 2026, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see futures heading lower.

Freezing production for three months buys OPEC+ some time while it assesses heightened geopolitical risks to supplies from members, as well as renewed efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

President Donald Trump ratcheted up tensions with Venezuela on Saturday by warning that airlines should consider the airspace above and around the country to be closed, as his administration continues to crack down on drug trafficking.

Crude’s pullback comes against the backdrop of Trump’s repeated calls for lower fuel prices amid voter concerns about the cost of living. The president warmly greeted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House earlier this month, with his administration approving the kingdom’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets and artificial intelligence chips.

Eight key OPEC+ nations stunned oil traders in April when they began to accelerate the return of production halted since 2023. Officials have described the move as Riyadh’s bid to reclaim market share ceded to rivals like US shale drillers, and punish fellow OPEC+ members who had flouted their quotas.

While the Saudis have succeeded in clawing back some market share, the ensuing price slide has challenged the kingdom financially, widening its budget deficit and forcing the scale-back of some flagship economic projects. It’s also straining producers outside OPEC+ like US shale drillers.

OPEC+ has revived about 70% of two layers of production halted in 2023 — at least on paper — leaving about 1.1 million barrels a day of these still to return. The organization left in place another layer of cutbacks for the wider 22-nation group, amounting to roughly 2 million barrels a day, until the end of 2026.

Still, monthly production increases by the sub-group have been smaller than the advertised volumes as some countries compensate for earlier overproduction, and others physically struggle to increase.

Such difficulties are at the heart of the group’s long-term review of members’ production capacity, first announced in May.

Some countries are seeking to have new capacity recognized and others struggle to pump as much as they’re allowed to. Clarifying their full capacity would help align quotas more closely with reality — and make any future cutbacks more credible.

Gulf bourses mixed on weak oil prices, Fed easing hopes | Reuters

Gulf bourses mixed on weak oil prices, Fed easing hopes | Reuters

Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Sunday following an easing in crude prices on Friday while anticipation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next month underpinned sentiment.

Crude futures fell marginally on Friday as investors considered oil's geopolitical risk premium amid drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

OPEC+ will likely leave oil output levels unchanged at its meetings on Sunday, four OPEC+ sources said as the producer group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a .

Saudi Arabia's benchmark share index (.TASI), opens new tab slipped 0.5%, with Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE), opens new tab losing 2.2% and oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab down 0.4%.

In Qatar, the main share index (.QSI), opens new tab eased 0.3%, with Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the Gulf's biggest lender by assets, down 1.1%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab advanced 1.7%, with Talaat Moustafa Group Holding (TMGH.CA), opens new tab jumping 6.2%.

#UAE stock markets edge higher on rising oil prices, Fed rate cut hopes | Reuters

UAE stock markets edge higher on rising oil prices, Fed rate cut hopes | Reuters

Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates edged higher on Friday, buoyed by rising oil prices and growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

While the Fed has maintained a cautious tone on further monetary easing amid a dearth of economic data caused by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, several influential policymakers have signalled openness to additional cuts.

Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, suggesting a December move may be warranted, have strengthened dovish market bets.

Dubai's benchmark index (.DFMGI), opens new tab rose 0.4% to 5,837, extending gains from the previous session, lifted by real estate and utilities stocks.

Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab added 0.8%, while its unit Emaar Development (EMAARDEV.DU), opens new tab advanced 2.1%. Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWAA.DU), opens new tab, the state-owned utility, climbed 1.9%.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab gained 0.4% to 9,747, snapping a five-session losing streak. First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab edged up 0.1%, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB.AD), opens new tab jumped 4.8%, marking its sharpest intraday gain in over two months.

For November, Dubai's index fell 3.7%, its steepest monthly decline this year after March, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark shed 3.5%, according to LSEG data.

OPEC+ Needs to Clean Up Its Own Oil Numbers - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Needs to Clean Up Its Own Oil Numbers - Bloomberg

 On the eve of a contentious OPEC meeting in the 1980s, one of the cartel’s top officials penned a poem that caused quite a stir among his colleagues. As the group meets on Sunday facing the danger of an oil price crash in 2026, his verses remain as relevant and as controversial four decades later.

“If you seek to retain stable prices
It will entail some great sacrifices
Lower further your production ceiling
And ban error and violation.”

The furor provoked by Sheik Mana al-Otaiba, then oil minister of the United Arab Emirates by day and published poet by night1, wasn’t about the need to cut output. Rather, it was about his reference to “error and violation” — poetic license for the lies and cheating that plagued the group.
Pity, OPEC doesn’t have an in-house bard anymore; still, its members engage in the same deception. For several quarters, rather than face the problem, the cartel has obfuscated. If it has any hope of regaining control of the market’s narrative — let alone of the market itself — it needs to clean up its act. Fortunately, there are signs inside the group it’s now recognizing the urgency of the problem.
OPEC+, as the group is known after it formed a loose coalition with Russia, Kazakhstan and several others, typically acts when it feels the heat. And, oh boy, it’s hot: On a monthly average basis, Brent will end November at $63.50 a barrel, the lowest month in four and a half years. Further falls are likely in 2026, particularly if Ukraine and Russia seal a peace deal
While OPEC+ may need to cut production next year, it first needs to restore its own credibility.
The first step is about how much each of its members pump. Never in recent history has the oil market has been skeptical of self-reported production levels. Doubts are also rife about the estimates compiled by a group of independent data providers called the “OPEC secondary sources,” which are also published monthly by the cartel. The data providers came under huge pressure from Saudi Arabia earlier this year to change their methodology, which briefly showed that Riyadh was pumping more than it was.
Likewise, the UAE officially pumps 3.3 million barrels a day; trust what traders and independent tanker trackers say, and it’s closer to — if not higher than — 4 million.
The problem is exacerbated by a quirk of how OPEC measures output. The group doesn’t count total oil production of its members, but a smaller segment of what’s technically called crude. Other liquids from oil wells, called condensates and natural gas liquids, are typically excluded. Unsurprisingly, OPEC nations have invested billions to use the loophole to bypass official production limits. Last year, OPEC+ pumped 40.9 million barrels of crude, which was subjected to quotas, plus another 8.5 million barrels a day of other liquids, which weren’t under any limits.
For next year, OPEC+ anticipates that its outside-the-quotas output will increase by 200,000 barrels a day to 8.8 million, further stressing an oversupplied market. And the trend will likely continue, as the Saudis and UAE prioritize non-crude oil liquids production.
The second step is to align actual production with quotas. OPEC+ nations typically cheat on their limits. Kazakhstan is a notorious violator, having pumped above its assigned level for all of 2025. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are on it, too; so is Kuwait and even tiny Gabon.
To solve the cheating problem, OPEC has created another obfuscation mechanism, which it calls “compensation.” OPEC nations that overproduce are told to compensate for their misbehavior later, reducing production temporarily. Unsurprisingly, the compensation mechanism has become a parody of itself, with countries not only cheating on their quotas, but on their compensation promises too, triggering even further compensations, which trigger even more compensation-dodging.
What should OPEC do? First, start publishing accurate data that includes not only crude but other liquids. Better to acknowledge past “error,” even if that entails confessing that the group misled the market in the pas. Then, its members should adhere to whatever output level is agreed with a set of realistic production quotas.
The Sunday meeting will probably involve discussion of an output audit, which has been on the table since 2023. The latest efforts put a new audit in 2027 — too late to manage the impending surplus. That’s why there’s debate behind closed doors about fast-tracking the audit to 2026, if possible, by the first half or even the first quarter. There are, of course, complications beyond scheduling: Some members, notably Russia, Venezuela and Iran, object to the involvement of US companies because they are themselves under American sanctions.
Ideally, the quotas should cover every member, rather than a subset of nations. Currently, OPEC+ has a hodgepodge of production targets. The key one covers only eight nations. Another covers a few more countries. And Libya, Venezuela and Iran are largely excluded of targets. Rather than having multiple layers, OPEC+ should revert to what it did only five years ago, with a single layer.
The clock is ticking. Oil prices are melting down. For now, OPEC+ may wait to seek clarity about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and the US gunboat diplomacy toward Venezuela. But its next move, perhaps when West Texas Intermediate crude approaches $50 a barrel, is likely an output cut. Back in the 1980s, Sheik al-Otaiba saw what was inevitably coming and what was needed, and put his oil thoughts into another poem:

“The price of oil is failing down
Reduction does now look inevitable.
So let us discuss clear quotas
Though discussions may seem impossible,
the least of evils seems the best,
Thus choice rest with what is acceptable.”

1. Sheik Al-Otaiba has published dozens of poems in Arabic and English. His poems about OPEC and the oil market were compiled in "Poems on Petroleum," published in 1986 by Darl al Fajr of Abu Dhabi. He called the collection "the divide between the profession of petroleum and the pastime of poetry."

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Gulf markets end mixed on Fed easing hopes, soft oil prices | Reuters

Gulf markets end mixed on Fed easing hopes, soft oil prices | Reuters

Gulf stock markets ended mixed on Thursday, amid rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while subdued oil prices capped overall risk appetite.

With a dearth of data on the U.S. economy following the end of the government shutdown, investors are focusing intensely on statements from Federal Reserve officials, with remarks this week significantly strengthening expectations for a rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign an 85% probability to a rate cut next month, up sharply from just 30% a week ago.

U.S. monetary policy shifts have a significant impact on Gulf markets, where most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab finished 0.1% higher, snapping a three-session losing streak, with Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab gaining 0.4% and Saudi National Bank (1180.SE), opens new tab, the country's biggest lender by assets, up 0.7%.

The market remains impacted by lower oil prices and their bearish outlook. If the downtrend in crude oil continues, it may further weigh on the index, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group.

Elsewhere, oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab inched 0.4% higher.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - steadied on Thursday as market participants weighed talks to end the war in Ukraine against the impact of Western sanctions against Russian supply, though trading was set to remain thin due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab was up 0.1%, helped by a 3.3% leap in budget airline Air Arabia (AIRA.DU), opens new tab.

According to Takieddine, the market's underlying fundamentals are still sound while a sustained recovery would depend on a broader improvement in investor sentiment.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab dropped 0.3%, with Dana Gas (DANA.AD), opens new tab shedding 2.6%, after a rocket strike targeted its Khor Mor facility, one of the largest gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The attack on Wednesday prompted the suspension of operations at the gas field and caused major power cuts across the region.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab slipped 0.4%, with Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab retreating 1.1%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab advanced 1.3%, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab closing 1.6%.

Jefferies Joins Wall Street Peers in #Saudi Private Credit Push - Bloomberg

Jefferies Joins Wall Street Peers in Saudi Private Credit Push - Bloomberg

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is making its first foray into Saudi Arabia’s private credit space, leading a $125 million financing deal for finance startup Erad.

The investment bank and co-investor Channel Capital are providing an asset-backed, scalable facility that will allow Erad to boost its lending to domestic small-and-medium sized companies through its platform, according to a statement from the Riyadh-based firm.

With the Erad deal, Jefferies joins a raft of major Wall Street investment banks pursuing private credit opportunities in the kingdom and the broader Gulf region. Two months ago, Saudi buy-now, pay-later unicorn Tamara secured a major asset-backed facility of as much as $2.4 billion from several finance firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup.

Until recently, private credit as an asset class barely existed in Saudi Arabia. But the country’s corporates are increasingly turning to alternative forms of financing as domestic banks are constrained by the funding needs created by the country’s mammoth economic overhaul.

The need for new sources of funding is especially pressing in the SME sphere, where companies struggle to receive backing from local banks. Erad said that the Gulf’s SMEs form “the backbone” of the region’s diversification efforts but that “despite their critical role” they face a $250 billion financing gap limiting their growth potential.

The deal “demonstrates the strategic importance of alternative finance in supporting the Kingdom’s goal of SME growth,” said Erad’s co-founder Salem Abu-Hammour.

The facility will help Erad meet the growing demand from SMEs in the Gulf and broaden its reach beyond traditional consumer sectors into manufacturing, logistics, distribution, and real estate services. Earlier this year, Erad already secured $33 million through a debt financing round led by Stride Ventures.

For Jefferies, it’s the bank’s first asset-backed financing transaction in Saudi Arabia, a deal that will also boost its presence in the kingdom. The New York-based investment bank has been beefing up its presence in the Middle East in recent years.

#Saudi Wealth Fund Sells Mecca Developer Shares For $253 Million - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Fund Sells Mecca Developer Shares For $253 Million - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund raised about $253 million by trimming its stake in a Mecca-based property developer that’s become the kingdom’s best-performing equity listing this year.

The sovereign wealth fund sold 48 million shares or a 3.3% stake in Umm Al Qura for Development & Construction at 19.80 riyals apiece, a 9.92% discount to the last close. The block trade was handled by Citigroup Inc., SNB Capital and EFG Hermes. Following the sale, the wealth fund’s holding drops to 16.3%, with the remainder subject to a 90-day lockup.

Shares in the company, which is developing a $27 billion project in the Muslim holy city, have risen 47% this year, despite a slight pullback this month in line with broader weakness in Saudi stocks. It’s still the kingdom’s best debut this year, driven by enthusiasm around Saudi Arabia’s push into religious tourism as a key pillar to diversify its economy away from oil.

Saudi Arabia has been the Middle East’s most active IPO market this year, with companies raising nearly $4 billion. Still, performance has been uneven, with only two of the ten biggest listings currently trading above their offer prices. The Tadawul All Share Index is also among the worst performers in emerging markets, weighed down by concerns over prolonged oil-price weakness and the potential impact on government spending.

The PIF, as the wealth fund is known, has played a central role in deepening the kingdom’s capital markets by floating portfolio companies in recent years. These share sales have also been a tool to fund Saudi Arabia’s trillion-dollar economic transformation programme, which the wealth fund helms.

But the PIF has slowed the pace of listings amid softer market conditions, including in firms such as Saudi Global Ports, Bloomberg News has reported. The sell-down in Umm Al Qura represents the fund’s first share sale in over a year, after it raised about $1 billion by selling a stake in the kingdom’s main mobile-phone operator, Saudi Telecom Co.

Aramco Is Said to Pick Citi for Oil Storage Terminals Stake Sale - Bloomberg

Aramco Is Said to Pick Citi for Oil Storage Terminals Stake Sale - Bloomberg

Saudi Aramco has chosen Citigroup Inc. to help arrange a potential multibillion-dollar stake sale in its oil export and storage terminals business, according to people familiar with the matter.

The US investment bank was selected in recent days after a pitching process that drew proposals from several other Wall Street lenders, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private.

The mandate is a win for Citigroup, whose Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser has made a renewed effort to win business from large corporates and sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East. Aramco had tapped JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a sell-side adviser when it previously sold stakes in its oil and gas pipeline infrastructure in separate transactions.

The Saudi oil giant is expected to kick-off a formal sale process as early as next year and is likely to see interest from large infrastructure funds, the people said. Discussions are at an early stage and no final decisions have been made on the timing or structure of the transaction, they said.

Representatives for Citigroup and Aramco declined to comment.

Aramco is considering options including selling an equity stake in the business, Bloomberg News reported this week. It aims to raise billions of dollars from such a sale, people familiar with the matter said at the time.

The plans are part of a broader attempt by the firm to sell a range of assets, including potentially part of its real estate portfolio.

Oil prices have dropped about 16% this year and while the impact of that drop on Aramco’s earnings has been tempered by higher output, the firm has delayed some projects and looked to sell assets to free up cash for investments.

The deals now being considered would mark a step up from previous transactions that were focused on stakes in pipeline infrastructure.

Aramco’s main oil storage and export infrastructure is located at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf and the company has similar terminals on the Red Sea. Internationally, the firm owns stakes in product terminals in the Netherlands and leases crude as well as product storage at main trade hubs in Egypt and at Okinawa in Japan.

Earlier this year, a BlackRock Inc-led group signed an $11 billion lease deal for facilities that serve Aramco’s Jafurah gas project in the kingdom.

Most Gulf markets retreat on weak oil prices | Reuters

Most Gulf markets retreat on weak oil prices | Reuters

Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Wednesday, as easing oil prices weighed on sentiment, though losses were capped by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Crude prices, a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, were steady on Wednesday after sliding to a one-month low in the previous session, as investors assessed prospects of oversupply and talks over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab dropped 0.5%, hit by a 1.1% fall in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab.

Elsewhere, shares of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co (4325.SE), opens new tab plunged 9.1%, its biggest intraday fall since April - after Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund disclosed on Wednesday that it had generated 950 million riyals ($250 million) by selling a 3.3% stake in the company.

Bearish sentiment triggered widespread selling across nearly all sectors. The persistent slump in crude oil continued to weigh on the market, as investors factored in possible progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and a projected sizable supply surplus in 2026, said Milad Azar Market analyst at XTB MENA.

"Additionally, liquidity continues to be strained by the continuous initial public offerings."

Among other losers, oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab was down 0.2%.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab fell 0.3%, with toll operator Salik Co (SALIK.DU), opens new tab losing 0.7%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab was down 0.3%.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab rose 0.8%, with Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the Gulf's biggest lender by assets, advancing 1.6%.

Data released on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales rose less than forecast in September, while the Producer Price Index climbed 2.7% year-on-year through September, matching the prior month-earlier gain.

The figures followed a series of dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials in recent days.

U.S. monetary policy shifts have a significant impact on Gulf markets, where most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab dropped 0.9%, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab retreating 1.9%.

Oman bourse was closed for a public holiday.

Three ‘Heathrows’ of growth: the unstoppable rise of Middle East airports

Three ‘Heathrows’ of growth: the unstoppable rise of Middle East airports

As airports in the Middle East expand, they are facing new competition: each other. 

The region’s hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are on an expansion drive that will see them add hundreds of millions of passengers in the coming decade — the equivalent of at least three Heathrows. 

Dubai, which was once the same size as London’s Gatwick serving around 30mn people a year, plans to increase annual capacity to more than 200mn. Istanbul is also targeting a similar level of passengers, while Saudi Arabia has ambitions to develop its own regional mega-hub through its new airline, Riyadh Air. 

In the past, the region’s airports eyed Europe’s leading hubs such as Heathrow, Frankfurt and Schiphol as competitors. But as they have grown, executives say they will need to win business from each other. 

Dubai — the Gulf’s original hub airport — believes its heft will help it fight off the competition. 

“We will be the black-hole mega hub that sucks in demand all over the region,” predicts Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports. 

Already the largest in the world, it expects to pass 100mn visitors a year by 2027 — but is working on a new site that can accommodate 260mn passengers annually. Even this will be full by 2050, he expects, based on its passenger forecasts. 

In contrast, Dubai’s UAE rival Abu Dhabi can accommodate 45mn passengers a year. Its main airline, Etihad, was expected by financiers to begin proceedings to list this year, though it has yet to do so. 

“We have one-third of the world’s population within four hours [flying time], and two-thirds within eight hours, that’s one hell of a catchment area,” Griffiths said. 

Part of the Gulf’s growth has been fuelled by the region’s airlines offering plush cabins, such as private suites, and services such as on-demand dining. Qatar Airways, for example, serves caviar in business class, and the carriers’ drive for ever more competitive luxury has led to rising prices. 

The Middle East hubs have had the geographical advantage as the world became more connected. 

“One of the reasons why Dubai, Qatar and Istanbul have been in the front of the line is because of their location advantage,” said Selahattin Bilgen, chief executive of Istanbul airport. 

“Thirty or forty years ago most of the aviation movements were between North America and Europe. But now it’s not the case. Istanbul being located in the middle of Africa, Asia and Europe gives a huge advantage.” 

European airlines have also been prevented from flying over Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — adding hours to flights to Japan, India and China and ceding the time advantage that Europe traditionally had over Emirati rivals. 

However, the West’s legacy carriers remain confident they can still offer customers advantages. 

“People don’t want to go over to Dubai for every single connection,” said Sean Doyle, chief executive of British Airways, who points to the carrier’s extensive network. 

“If we have a competitive product and we’re flying directly to more places from London than anybody else, I’m pretty confident that people will vote with their feet,” he said. 

Nevertheless, backed by governments with tourism and aviation part of their growth strategy, the Middle Eastern hubs are bullish despite the regional tensions that can disrupt travel. 

Riyadh Air, wholly owned by Saudi’s Public Investment Fund, has an explicit goal from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to put the Kingdom on the world’s travel map as part of wider efforts to diversify its economy away from oil. 

The carrier, which launched its inaugural London to Riyadh flight last month for PIF staff, will take public bookings from Christmas and aims to connect 100 destinations within five years. It has ordered 182 aircraft as part of a “multiple tens of billions” bet on rising tourism and connectivity. 

Riyadh is currently poorly connected — with anyone wanting to visit from locations such as Tokyo, Shanghai or the US forced to transfer elsewhere. 

“That’s simply unacceptable,” said Tony Douglas, Riyadh Air’s boss, adding that “we have a mandate to resolve that”. His ambition is to become, over time, more of a “global connector”. “If you’re a resident of Riyadh in Saudi, and want to get to other cities, you shouldn’t have to go to Doha or Dubai or somewhere else to connect.” 

Although not located in the Gulf, Istanbul’s airport rivals those further south as a centre for connecting flights — as well as Istanbul being a tourist destination in its own right. 

It opened a brand new airport in 2018 that can process 90mn people annually, replacing a landlocked predecessor Atatürk Airport, which was closed the following year. 

Three further expansion phases, taking it to six runways, could eventually see Istanbul expand to cater for 200mn people annually, a size rivalling an expanded Dubai. 

The rivalry between the airports has led to competition for staff, with the hubs poaching executives and IT professionals from each other. 

Istanbul airport’s chief planning officer and head of IT have recently both been hired by Dubai to help with its new expansion. Bilgen said the hub was aiming to be prepared for the loss of experts. “We are running some projects to keep our talent, second to grow new talent to replace the ones who were lost,” he said. 

Growth has brought a spiral effect to the Middle East hubs, he added, as “the more connected you are, the more attractive you are [to airlines], and the more airlines come to you, the more connectivity you have,” he added. 

In the long term, increasing the number of tourists travelling to the Gulf — rather than relying on passengers connecting to flights to other regions such as Asia — is key to safeguarding growth for airports, executives say. 

“I don’t think many people will make that trip [to the Middle East] at the moment if there’s only one city to visit,” said Dubai’s Griffiths. 

Dubai itself may have had 19mn visitors last year, up 9 per cent from a year before, but “if you add all of the sites in Saudi, if you add Jordan, Oman and you popularise all those tourist destinations, you will exponentially grow the market for tourism. And I think that’s what is likely to happen,” he said.

BlackRock Looks to Double #Saudi Investments in Fresh Deal Boom - Bloomberg

BlackRock Looks to Double Saudi Investments in Fresh Deal Boom - Bloomberg

BlackRock Inc. aims to rapidly grow its investments in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East in the next few years as it looks to tap into a rush of activity in areas from infrastructure to artificial intelligence.

The world’s largest asset manager has already invested more than $35 billion in the kingdom across equities, fixed income and infrastructure, and now has four investment teams in Riyadh focused on strategies across the Middle East, according to Kashif Riaz, who heads BlackRock’s Financial Markets Advisory business in the Middle East and its Riyadh-based investment management platform.

“We think we’ve just gotten started with the theme of the Middle East as an investment destination,” he said in an interview in the Saudi capital on Monday night. When asked about the expected level of future Saudi investments, he said that “double to triple is kind of the range I would talk about.”

Riaz sees the strongest opportunities in infrastructure as Saudi Arabia shells out hundreds of billions of dollars on projects to develop the non-oil economy and serve a growing population. The kingdom is, for example, expanding the Riyadh metro, building one of the world’s largest airports and rushing to build data centers through its new AI champion Humain.

“The bulk of capital deployment has been in energy infrastructure but I think that’ll broaden to transportation, things around digital infrastructure, data centers, et cetera,” Riaz said.

That suggests more Saudi deals to come for BlackRock and its Global Infrastructure Partners division, which recently led an $11 billion deal involving Saudi Aramco’s natural gas facilities. The unit also recently partnered with investors including Abu Dhabi’s MGX to buy Aligned Data Centers in a $40 billion deal, as BlackRock and Middle East nations race to claim a stake in the global AI boom.

BlackRock established itself in Saudi Arabia in 2019 and began accelerating its growth in the kingdom last year after striking a $5 billion deal with the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to build a Riyadh-based investments platform. The PIF has also agreed to anchor funds by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and State Street as part of Saudi Arabia’s broader efforts to deepen the asset management industry, financial markets and pool of foreign investment.

As part of the PIF deal, BlackRock has grown its Saudi team to about 40 people, with investment teams focused on strategies including equities and fixed income, Riaz said. He declined to comment on the team’s assets under management but said the Riyadh operation will soon grow to include multi-asset strategies.

It’s also set to soon roll out a range of new mutual funds and is actively working with the kingdom on developing the market for residential-mortgage backed securities.

BlackRock and other Wall Street heavyweights are becoming ever-more critical to Saudi Arabia as the kingdom’s need for external capital and financing for economic diversification projects grows. Riaz sees the role of private capital and capital markets — across both equities and debt — growing in prominence in the years ahead.

#Qatar Telecom Share Sale Stirs Hope for Equity Market Revival - Bloomberg

Qatar Telecom Share Sale Stirs Hope for Equity Market Revival - Bloomberg

A sizable follow-on equity offering in Qatar, one of the Middle East’s quietest markets for share sales, is stirring tentative hopes for a pickup in activity on Doha’s bourse.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority raised $552 million last week by selling a 5% stake in Ooredoo QPSC, Qatar’s biggest telecom operator, through a fully-marketed secondary offering — the country’s first of its kind.

The transaction shows that Qatar is “open for business” and willing to engage with international investors, said Miguel Azevedo, vice-chair of investment banking for Middle East and Africa at Citigroup Inc., one of the deal’s arrangers.

“It may not trigger an immediate wave of IPOs, but it’s a necessary first step, proof that it can be done,” Azevedo said.

Doha has largely been left out of the wave of share sales sweeping the Gulf in recent years, as governments seek to deepen capital markets by listing assets and encouraging private sector IPOs.

Only $372 million has been raised through two listings in Doha since 2020, and there were no secondary share sales until the Ooredoo transaction, data compiled by Bloomberg show. This is in stark contrast to the UAE, where such offerings have eclipsed IPO volumes this year to raise close to $5 billion. Some now see signs of change.

Rudy Saadi, head of Middle East and Africa (ex-SA) equity capital markets at Citigroup, said that a significant proportion of the book in the Ooredoo transaction was allocated to international investors, with some providing anchor-sized commitments during early marketing.

The deal will lift Ooredoo’s free float to at least 27% from 22%, driving demand by a re-weighting within indexes, Chief Executive Officer Aziz Aluthman Fakhroo told Bloomberg News last week.

Qatar, with its vast natural gas wealth, faces less pressure than Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates to raise funds through equity sales to finance diversification plans. Still, officials have been taking steps to boost market liquidity and broaden participation, including allowing short-selling and offering incentives for firms to relocate to the country as it competes with Dubai and Riyadh to attract financial activity.

The stock exchange’s new chief executive officer, Abdulla Mohammed Al Ansari - who took over last year after serving as director of Qatar Funds at the $524 billion Qatar Investment Authority - may potentially signal a stronger push to activate the market, as wealth funds have been key drivers of privatization programs elsewhere in the Gulf.

There are some signs of more ECM activity in the pipeline. State-backed Gulf International Services has announced plans to list its unit Al Koot Insurance and Reinsurance and Amwaj Catering Services on the local bourse.

But Qatar’s path toward a more active equity market will depend on regulatory adaptation, local market champions, and a steady pipeline of offerings to sustain investor interest, Citigroup’s Azevedo said.

“Other Gulf capitals have pursued listings to improve governance, management quality, and attract talent,” he added. “Qatar could follow a similar model - pursuing listings out of conviction, not necessity.”

#Saudi wealth fund PIF to sell 3.3% stake in Mecca project developer | Reuters

Saudi wealth fund PIF to sell 3.3% stake in Mecca project developer | Reuters

Saudi Arabia's public wealth fund PIF plans to sell 3.3% of its stake in Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co (4325.SE), opens new tab through an accelerated bookbuild, one of the banks arranging the deal said on Tuesday.

The sale to institutional investors covers up to 48 million shares in the company, which is developing the Masar Destination in Mecca.

Pricing will be set through the bookbuilding process, with results due later on Tuesday, SNB Capital, one of the bookrunners, said.

Masar shares closed at 21.98 riyals, valuing the stake at about 1.06 billion riyals ($281.3 million).

PIF will retain around 16.3% of Masar after the transaction. The bookrunner said the offering was fully covered, with demand exceeding the deal size.

Umm Al Qura's Masar redevelopment project in Mecca is valued at 100 billion riyals ($26.66 billion). The company listed in March after raising $523 million in its initial public offering.

Saudi Arabia's market regulator this year allowed foreign investment in listed companies that own real estate within Islam's two holiest sites of Mecca and Medina, as the Gulf country looks to attract more investment.

Softer oil price prompts fall in most Gulf markets | Reuters

Softer oil price prompts fall in most Gulf markets | Reuters

Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on weak oil prices on Tuesday, although revived expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in December limited losses.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - eased as oversupply concerns outweighed worries that Russian shipments will remain under sanctions as talks to end the Ukraine war remain inconclusive.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab was down 1.5%, dragged lower by a 2.7% fall in Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab shares. Bloomberg News reported that the oil giant is exploring options to raise several billion dollars through asset sales.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab gave up early gains to close 0.1% lower, with Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab falling 1.1%.

Dubai approved a 2026-2028 budget with 302.7 billion dirhams ($82.42 billion) in expenditure and 329.2 billion dirhams in revenue, the state news agency said on Sunday.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab ended 0.1% lower.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab declined 0.9%, with shares in Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab losing 1.1%.

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the labor market has softened sufficiently to justify a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, but any further easing will hinge on a wave of economic data that was delayed by the recent government shutdown.

His remarks follow New York Fed President John Williams' comment on Friday that interest rates are likely to decline "in the near term".

Investors are now pricing in an 81% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 40% last week, the CME FedWatch Tool shows.

U.S. monetary policy shifts have a significant impact on Gulf markets, where most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.5%, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab rising 3.2%.

#UAE: #AbuDhabi’s Lunate Weighs $1 Billion Commitment to AI Firm MGX - Bloomberg

UAE: Abu Dhabi’s Lunate Weighs $1 Billion Commitment to AI Firm MGX - Bloomberg

Abu Dhabi asset manager Lunate is in discussions to commit as much as $1 billion to state-backed artificial intelligence investor MGX, according to people familiar with the matter.

Lunate deploys capital through four distinct fund strategies, niche partnerships, and also manages money on behalf of other investors. Details on the exact structure of its planned MGX investment were not immediately available.

Discussions are ongoing and no final decisions have been made, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Representatives for Lunate declined to comment, while MGX couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

MGX, founded by Abu Dhabi AI firm G42 and wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co., has been considering plans to raise billions of dollars in third-party capital through a fund structure. The firm is looking to ramp up AI investments, after having already backed OpenAI and xAI, while teaming up with BlackRock Inc. and Microsoft Corp. on a $30 billion plan to build data warehouses and energy infrastructure.

It’s looking to raise as much as $25 billion for the new vehicle, which would rank as one of the largest entities of its kind, Bloomberg News reported has reported. As part of their plans, MGX executives were weighing raising money from financial and strategic investors in Abu Dhabi and beyond.

Overseen by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, MGX has become central to Abu Dhabi’s AI ambitions since it was set up last year. Lunate, for its part, has also done a few deals that dovetail into those efforts, including an investment into OpenAI.

The asset manager works with many of the world’s largest firms including BlackRock, Blackstone Inc., CVC Capital Partners Plc, and Brookfield Asset Management. It commits capital both as a limited partner and as a general partner, and has deployed $13.5 billion since being set up two years ago.

It raised about $17 billion in 2024 for its flagship funds and is targeting a higher amount for funds launching in 2026, Bloomberg News has reported. The firm counts Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ and Chimera Investment, which are both ultimately overseen by Sheikh Tahnoon, as anchor limited partners.

Lunate’s three managing partners hold stakes in the firm, which describes itself as independently-managed with Chimera Investment as a majority owner.

#AbuDhabi's ADNOC plans $150 billion in capital investments between 2026-2030 | Reuters

Abu Dhabi's ADNOC plans $150 billion in capital investments between 2026-2030 | Reuters

Abu Dhabi state oil company ADNOC plans $150 billion of investment between 2026 and 2030, it said on Monday, seeking to maintain existing operations, drive growth and meet global energy demand.

During a meeting on Monday, the board of directors welcomed the company's increased oil reserves at 120 billion stock tank barrels (stb), up from 113 billion stb, and natural gas reserves of 297 trillion standard cubic feet (scf) from 290 trillion scf, it said.

The Emirati oil giant has been attracting new global partners to unconventional exploration concessions to speed up development, support the Gulf state's gas self-sufficiency and meet growing global gas demand.

Abu Dhabi's unconventional resources, those that require advanced extraction methods, are estimated at 160 tcf of gas and 22 billion stb of oil, the statement said.
ADNOC also said the enterprise value of international investment arm XRG had increased to $151 billion from about $80 billion after its launch in November last year.

XRG aims to pursue global deals in chemicals, natural gas and renewables as the emirate seeks to build a globe-spanning portfolio in those areas and rely less on oil export revenue.

The ADNOC board also gave the green light for a new operating company for its Ghasha concession, an offshore project expected to produce 1.8 billion scf of gas and 150,000 barrels per day of oil and condensates.

Gulf markets mixed on softer oil prices, Fed rate cut bets | Reuters

Gulf markets mixed on softer oil prices, Fed rate cut bets | Reuters

Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Monday, weighed down by weaker oil prices, while investors awaited further clarity on the U.S. interest rate outlook.

Oil prices, a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, dropped on Monday, extending losses from last week, as Russia-Ukraine peace talks edged closer to a solution and the greenback strengthened.

Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal raised the prospect of easing sanctions, potentially freeing up more Russian supply.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab retreated 1.4%, with Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab declining 2.6% and oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab losing 1.4%.

Market sentiment was dampened by lower oil prices and oversupply concerns. Reports of potential progress toward peace in Eastern Europe raised the prospect of Russian crude returning to the market, adding further pressure on crude prices, said Hani Abuagla Senior Market Analyst at XTB MENA.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab inched 0.1% lower.

Dubai Financial Market delayed the start of the trading session on Monday due to connectivity issues affecting participants.

In Abu Dbabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab was down 0.2%.

The probability of a Fed rate cut next month inched lower to 69% on Monday, after jumping to 74% in the previous session, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Investors await the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data, due later in the week.

Bets of rate cuts had surged to 74% from 40% on Friday following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.

U.S. monetary policy shifts have a significant impact on Gulf markets, where most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab rose 0.4%, with Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab gaining 1.3%.

According to Abuagla, the high probability of a Fed rate cut is aiding sentiment, the market will likely need further positive developments to sustain a recovery.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab tumbled 1.8%, with tobacco monopoly Eastern Company (EAST.CA), opens new tab dropping 6.3%.

#SaudiArabia’s Aramco Said to Weigh Raising Billions From Biggest Disposals Yet - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Said to Weigh Raising Billions From Biggest Disposals Yet - Bloomberg

Saudi Aramco is considering plans to raise billions of dollars by selling a range of assets, people familiar with the matter said, deals that could rank as its most significant disposals ever.

The firm is weighing the sale of a stake in its oil export and storage terminals as part of the plans, the people said, declining to be identified as the information is confidential. Banks have been asked to pitch for roles on feasibility studies for the disposals, which could fetch more than $10 billion, they said.

Aramco is eying options including raising fresh equity from the deal, the people said. It could also pursue a structure similar to the recent $11 billion lease transaction with a group led by BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners for assets linked to the Jafurah gas project, they said.

That sale drew interest from firms around the world and bankers have since pitched several asset disposal plans given increasing demand from investors, one of the people said. Aramco’s terminals business is seen as a lucrative asset and the company could kick off a formal sales process as soon as early next year, the person said.

At the same time, the oil giant is considering selling part of its real estate portfolio, some of the people said. Those assets will also likely be worth billions of dollars and will be seen as attractive at a time when the kingdom is advancing plans to allow foreign ownership.

Discussions are at an early stage and no final decisions have been made. Representatives for Aramco didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Aramco’s main oil storage and export infrastructure is located at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf and the company has similar terminals on the Red Sea. Internationally, the firm owns stakes in product terminals in the Netherlands and leases crude as well as product storage at main trade hubs in Egypt and at Okinawa in Japan.

Oil prices have dropped by roughly a fifth this year and while that decline has somewhat been tempered by higher output, Aramco has delayed some projects and looked to sell assets to free up cash for investments.

The deals now being considered would mark a step up from previous transactions that were focused on stakes in pipeline infrastructure.

The world’s biggest oil exporter is a lynchpin of the Saudi economy. Revenue from energy sales and the firm’s hefty dividend payouts help support the kingdom’s expensive economic revamp, some elements of which have been hamstrung by growing costs.

Meanwhile, Aramco is continuing to invest in big-ticket projects like Jafurah, which is set to start production this year and reach full capacity in 2030.

#Dubai Property Frenzy Sets Developers on a $6 Billion Debt Spree - Bloomberg

Dubai Property Frenzy Sets Developers on a $6 Billion Debt Spree - Bloomberg

Property developers in the United Arab Emirates are raising billions through a growing arsenal of funding tools - from Islamic bonds to private credit - as they ride one of the Gulf country’s longest real estate booms in years.

Data compiled by Bloomberg show dollar bond and sukuk issuance alone has grown more than twelve-fold to $6 billion since 2021, underscoring how widely developers have accessed the market in a short time.

Names once unknown to international debt capital markets, including Arada Developments, Binghatti Holding and Omniyat Holdings, are now regular sukuk issuers, joining heavyweights like Emaar Properties, Aldar Properties, and DAMAC Properties.

More new names like Samana Developers are planning to test capital markets, and Arada is even weighing a convertible sukuk, a rare move in a region still new to equity-linked financing.

Many firms are racing to get more cash to buy land as the competition to secure prime locations in the UAE intensifies. Their push into new pockets of the credit market highlights a growing role for local and international bond investors in Dubai real estate. Property prices have already risen more than 70% since 2019 in the city, and are also surging in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Sharjah.

Still, the flood of issuances has created a growing wall of maturities, with about $8 billion due by 2030. Some analysts have flagged rising risks from Dubai’s extended boom, though most say the sector’s fundamentals remain solid for now. The emirate continues to see record pre-sales and strong inflows from wealthy overseas buyers, boosting developers’ profitability and cash buffers.

“The demand for UAE real estate bonds and sukuk is unlikely to dry up anytime soon,” said Apostolos Bantis, managing director of fixed income advisory at Union Bancaire Privée. “Global investors remain attracted to higher-quality developers offering yields that stand out compared to developed markets.”

At the same time, a global slowdown, regional unrest, or a drop in oil prices could sap confidence and leave some homebuyers exposed if any developers struggle to deliver. A wave of new property supply has also led Fitch Ratings to forecast a “moderate correction” in late 2025 into 2026.

UBS Group AG has warned that Dubai’s bubble risk has surged since 2022, though the city still sits below the bank’s “high-risk” category, helped by strong rental yields and comparatively affordable home prices.

In debt markets, the flood of new real-estate sukuk deals could test market appetite, particularly as investors look to avoid over-exposure to a single sector. Fady Gendy, fixed-income portfolio manager at Arqaam Capital, said the large volume of deals this year has led to some signs of “investor fatigue,” apparent in how some recent deals have been trading below their re-offer price and with higher new issue premiums paid.

“This is to be expected after the large volume printed from the sector this year, and that being concentrated across a few names,” he said.

None of that is deterring developers who want to raise money in the short term. For many, private credit has emerged as a vital new source of liquidity as traditional banks approach their real estate exposure limits.

Omniyat tapped Nomura for a $100 million private credit facility earlier this year, and private credit specialists say most of the current demand in the UAE is coming from developers.

“Banks have hit sector limits and are prioritizing lending to large, government-backed developers,” said David Beckett, head of origination and Middle East business development at asset manager SC Lowy. “That leaves private developers underfunded, but they’re seeing strong returns and are willing to pay private credit spreads.”

Some firms are looking beyond debt markets to potential listings, although no definitive plans have been announced yet. Binghatti, Samana and Arada are among those weighing possible initial public offerings.

Gendy would see a rise in IPOs as a welcome shift, not only to potentially provide fresh injections of capital, but also to strengthen transparency and corporate governance. One key risk to watch, he added, will be dividend policy, to ensure developers maintain sufficient buffers for any future downturns. Investors are no strangers to the Dubai property sector’s swings: Damac Properties was taken private in 2022 at a sharp discount to its original listing value.

Despite potential challenges, real estate investors and developers are counting on demand to hold up, partly because expats continue to pour into Dubai and the nearby emirates.

Gendy stressed that near-term sector fundamentals remain intact, and concerns about a potential supply glut in 2026 or 2027 may be overblown, as actual new developments typically fall short of projections.

“That said, if there is a more severe correction, we would expect to see some dispersion in market pricing between the various real estate issuers, on account of differences in their business models, and operating and financial metrics,” Gendy said about the bonds the builders are issuing.

#UAE Plans to Invest $1 Billion in African AI Infrastructure - Bloomberg

UAE Plans to Invest $1 Billion in African AI Infrastructure - Bloomberg

The United Arab Emirates plans to invest $1 billion to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure and services across Africa, bolstering its influence on a continent that’s lagged behind the rest of the world in adopting the technology.

The investment will help develop digital infrastructure, improve government services and enhance productivity, Saeed bin Mubarak Al Hajeri, UAE minister of state at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at the Group of 20 summit in Johannesburg on Saturday.

“It will provide access to AI computing power, technical expertise, and global partnerships,” he said. “It aims to support developing countries to overcome key developmental challenges by integrating AI technologies into these sectors.”

The UAE, which is spending billions of dollars on AI at home and in the US, is now the fourth-largest investor in Africa, according to Al Hajeri. Its investments span renewable energy and logistics to critical minerals.

The AI plan will support African nations in delivering projects in education, agriculture, health care, digital identity and climate adaptation, according to the minister.

“Our goal now is to ensure these capabilities benefit partners across the global South, and that no country is left behind in the AI age,” he said.

Trump Summit With #Saudi Leader MBS Made Strategic Sense - Bloomberg

Trump Summit With Saudi Leader MBS Made Strategic Sense - Bloomberg

I first met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh in 2018. He took me to several workstations in his cavernous offices, showing off the ambitious projects and technological advancements needed to diversify his economy. My after-visit summary was: “He has lightning in his veins.” ­I meant that in two ways: the positive sense of great energy, and the negative of rash unpredictability.

Given that he is only 40, MBS (as he is known) will likely be the absolute ruler of his land for many decades. There is no underplaying the significance of his arrival in Washington to meet with President Donald Trump this week, especially given the heightened geopolitical stakes in the region and the increasingly shared global interests of the US and Saudi Arabia.

All went more or less as scripted: The crown prince was warmly welcomed at the Oval Office; the kingdom reportedly pledged up to $1 trillion investment in the US; and the Saudis were granted the coveted status of a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally. A flyover of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters presaged the offer to sell the kingdom that fifth-generation plane. Deals on peaceful nuclear power, artificial intelligence cooperation, critical minerals and other issues were pushed ahead.

The visit displayed a warm personal friendship between the mercurial crown prince and the mercurial president. Any lingering shadow from the killing of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 — which the CIA found was ordered by MBS — was brushed aside.

Yet beyond the public displays of alignment and affection, what are the geostrategic drivers of the US-Saudi relationship? Where should the Trump administration seek to cash the political capital it created with the lavish visit?

First and foremost, the White House should push the Saudis to fully support Trump’s 20-point Mideast peace plan that includes rebuilding Gaza and putting a pan-Arab peacekeeping force on the ground. This could put paid to the final remnants of Hamas and bring stability and a steady flow of humanitarian goods to the 2.2 million Palestinians in the battered enclave. While Israel would probably hold onto a buffer zone of sorts, an Arab force — perhaps with additional peacekeepers from other Islamic states such as Indonesia and Turkey — is the only way to fully pacify the Gaza Strip.

Ending the war and rebuilding Gaza is the key to normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, one of Trump’s dearest diplomatic objectives. While the crown prince continues to say that cannot occur until there is a viable path to a Palestinian state, the Trump administration may be able to finesse that requirement by simply pushing it out years into the future.

A second area of mutual concern is Iran, which has been at the top of the agenda in my meetings with MBS. The best strategy is to continue to box it out of the region, ensuring there is no return of strong Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq. This will require continued military pressure by Washington, working in concert with Israel. It will also need support from the Saudis in intelligence, air defense, surveillance, cyberwarfare, and special forces activities. Military-to-military cooperation between the Israelis and Saudis is shrouded in secrecy, but in the aftermath of the new US-Saudi defense pact, these operations could come out from the shadows.

The third important element of the US-Saudi relationship centers on the sale of the F-35 fighters. This will be controversial in two ways. One is that transferring such advanced technology always risks it falling into the hands of rivals, particularly China. Additionally, Israel is unlikely to be happy that the deal degrades the “qualitative military edge” that, under US law, it has enjoyed over its Arab neighbors for years. So Washington will need to manage that particular program carefully, with strong safeguards for protecting the technology and strong diplomacy to keep Saudi and Israeli security needs in balance.

Finally, there is cooperation on energy. There may be turbulent times ahead in world oil markets, with three major potential geopolitical scenarios: regime change in Venezuela, opening up its known oil reserves of more than 300 billion barrels; Moscow agreeing on a Ukraine peace deal that gets it out of oil and gas sanctions; and perhaps Iran making a deal to drop its pursuit of nuclear weapons and similarly finding sanctions eased. It’s unlikely that all three will happen — the equivalent of three cherries on the slot machine of geopolitics — but even if only one or two occur, markets will roil.

Beyond the glittering setting of the Oval Office and the tech-billionaire turnout at the evening soiree, the crown prince’s visit showed solid geopolitical interest at work. Now it’s time to channel his personal lightning in productive ways — to Gaza, Iran, defense and energy markets.