#Oman Keeps Trickle of LNG Flowing from Middle East Amid Iran War - Bloomberg

Oman Keeps Trickle of LNG Flowing from Middle East Amid Iran War - Bloomberg

Oman LNG is offering to sell a cargo of liquefied natural gas to be delivered to Asia, according to people with knowledge of the matter, signaling a trickle of the fuel continues to flow from the Middle East despite the Iran war.

Traders have been closely watching Oman, the world’s eighth largest LNG producer, for signs it would continue shipping it as attacks in the region intensify. The nation’s export plant is on the Arabian Sea, meaning tankers don’t need to pass through Strait of Hormuz to access it.

The US and Israel’s war against Iran has cut off about a fifth of the world’s LNG supply. The world’s largest LNG export facility, in Qatar, has been shut down for more than two weeks following an Iranian drone strike on the plant. Shipments from the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, are all but trapped inside the Persian Gulf because Iran has effectively blocked the strait.

Oman’s LNG plant in Qalhat has loaded nine cargoes since the war began, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg. The recent shipment it’s offering is for delivery from late April to early May, the people said. The tender closed earlier Tuesday.

While supplies continue to flow from Oman, Rystad warned in a research note that its LNG exports could still be at risk, particularly since Iran has already attacked one of the nation’s ports in Sohar, about 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of the LNG plant in Qalhat.

Mideast Stocks: #Dubai leads Gulf stock market advance as investors reassess regional risks

Mideast Stocks: Dubai leads Gulf stock market advance as investors reassess regional risks

Stock markets in the Gulf largely ended in ​positive territory on ⁠Tuesday, with Dubai leading the advance, as investors looked beyond regional geopolitical concerns and ‌reassessed their broader outlook.

Dubai's main share index reversed early losses to close 4.1% higher, with the ​index narrowing its losses since the start of the conflict to 15.3%. Iran renewed its attacks on ​the United ​Arab Emirates, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran entered its third week with no signs of easing.

The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, pushing oil prices ⁠about 3% higher and deepening concerns over inflation. The fresh strikes led to a temporary shutdown of airspace in the UAE. A drone also hit an oil facility in Fujairah, a key port for Emirati oil exports, for a second consecutive day, while operations at ​the Shah ‌gas field remained ⁠suspended following a drone ⁠attack.

U.S. President Donald Trump had said on Monday he was surprised by Iran's retaliatory attacks on neighboring ​countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

But ‌Gulf stock markets rebounded on Tuesday on strong ⁠real estate gains. Emaar Properties and Emaar Development advanced after S&P reaffirmed the sector's resilience despite geopolitical tensions, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 1%, with Aldar Properties climbing 6%.

Earlier this month, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges introduced a temporary 5% daily downside limit on listed securities and suspended trading on March 2 and March 3, as part of broader measures to curb volatility and maintain orderly market conditions.

According to Takieddine, improving global sentiment, solid local fundamentals ‌and hopes of a Strait of Hormuz resolution could support further ⁠gains in both markets.

"However, a full recovery will largely ​depend on the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region," he said.

Qatar's benchmark index rose 0.6%, while Oman's gained 0.2%.

Bahrain's index edged up 0.2%, whereas Boursa Kuwait slipped 0.6%.

Saudi Arabia's stock ​market was ‌closed for the Eid holidays.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index ⁠jumped 1.9%, with Commercial International Bank advancing 2%.

Gulf banks face $307 billion deposit flight risk if war persists, S&P says | Reuters

Gulf banks face $307 billion deposit flight risk if war persists, S&P says | Reuters

Gulf banks, which have proved resilient since war in the Middle East broke out, could face a ‌domestic deposit outflow of $307 billion if the conflict deepens, according to S&P Global Ratings.

S&P said it had found no evidence of major outflows of foreign or local funding so far, but cautioned that a prolonged conflict could trigger a flight to quality between ​banks within the same systems, as well as broader external and local funding exits.

The ratings agency's base ​case scenario assumes the most intense phase of the war lasts two to four weeks, though ⁠it acknowledged that spillovers and intermittent security incidents could extend beyond that window, it said in a report dated ​March 16.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is in its third week with no end in sight.

Under its hypothetical stress ​scenario, domestic deposit outflows across the six Gulf Cooperation Council banking systems could reach $307 billion based on year-end 2025 figures, S&P said.

Banks currently hold around $312 billion in cash or at central banks to absorb such outflows, with an additional buffer of roughly $630 billion ​available after liquidating investment portfolios at a 20% haircut, S&P added.

"Overall, the risk appears manageable," S&P said, adding ​that four of the six GCC countries are considered highly supportive of their banking systems and that regional regulators have stepped ‌up supervision ⁠since hostilities began.

Bahraini retail banks appear more vulnerable given recent increases in external debt, S&P added.

The UAE central bank has moved to reassure markets.

Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama said earlier this month the banking sector has continued to operate normally.

UAE banks have benefited recently from rising credit demand as regional governments pour billions of dollars into sectors such ​as tourism and infrastructure.
Still, bank shares ​have tanked since the ⁠war began, with double-digit dives for all the major lenders (ENBD.DU), opens new tab, (FAB.AD), opens new tab, (ADCB.AD), opens new tab . On asset quality, S&P said the full impact on banks’ loan books will take time to materialise, with logistics, ​transportation, tourism, real estate, retail and hospitality among the most exposed sectors.

Under a high-stress ​scenario assuming ⁠either a 50% increase in non-performing loans (NPL) or a NPL ratio of 7% of total loans, whichever is greater, cumulative losses across the region’s top 45 banks could reach around $37 billion, S&P said.

The agency said GCC banks are entering the ⁠stress ​period from a position of relative strength.

It drew parallels with the 2020 ​COVID-19 shock, noting that regulators deployed measures at the time to allow banks to absorb loan impairments, and said it expected a similar ​response if conditions deteriorated.