Generally, when looking at market trends we can assume that a minimum retracement (counter trend rally) that can be anticipated is 33-38 per cent, especially when looking at the larger trends. So far, neither the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) nor the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index (ADI) has retraced that much.
The DFMGI has retraced approximately 16 per cent when looking at the mid-June 2009 high and only 10 per cent when using Thursday's closing price, of the down trend start in January 2008. A 38 per cent retracement would bring the index to around 3,296.87.
For the ADI a 38 per cent retracement would be around 3,287. To date it has retraced only 27.4 per cent of the down trend started in June 2008, when looking at the high hit in mid-June 2009. The close on Thursday was 23.5 per cent retracement of that down trend.
No comments:
Post a Comment