Rising tensions between Israel and Iran, over Tehran’s nuclear development programme, could drive oil prices over $130 a barrel next year says Goldman Sachs’s chief economist in Moscow at a time when the consensus forecast is for a price decline to $80-$90 because of slowing global growth and the euro crisis.
“Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, but it will driven by a one-off, not rising demand, by a tightening embargo on Iran that will take more and more oil out of the market,” says Clemens Grafe, Goldman Sachs’ managing director of new market economics in an interview with bne.
Separately, Robert McNally, the former chief energy advisor on US President George W. Bush’s National Security Council, and past advisor to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, sees a “dangerous divergence” between market players and policymakers with regard to the risks of a conflict between Israel and Iran."
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