Column: OPEC+ bets crude oil demand will recover as fast as output returns | Reuters
The move by the OPEC+ group of oil exporters to ease their output restrictions from May onwards is effectively a bet that the current soft demand for crude will improve at the same pace as production returns.
If history is a guide, it will be extremely difficult to get that balance correct, especially in the wake of such a large disruption to the global oil market as the coronavirus pandemic.
With the impact of the pandemic still evident, the decision by OPEC+, the group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, to add back an effective 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by July seems brave.
The group decided at a meeting on April 1 to ease their output cuts of about 7 million bpd by 350,000 bpd in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and by 400,000 bpd in July.
In addition, OPEC+’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it was phasing out its extra voluntary cuts by July, a move that will add 1 million bpd.
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