Thursday, 25 November 2021

Analysis: Supercharged Turkish stocks rally not everything it seems | Reuters

Analysis: Supercharged Turkish stocks rally not everything it seems | Reuters


The lira's plunge has propelled Turkey's exporter-dominated stock market to its best month in 12 years, but for foreign investors, who have just started dipping their toes in again, it's a very different story.

The stock rally, taking in exporters such as steel producer Iskenderun Demir (Isdemir) (ISDMR.IS) and glass maker Sısecam (SISE.IS), has seen Istanbul's $37 billion main bourse (.XU100) soar nearly 20% in November, which is almost as much as the lira has slumped.

Emerging economy stock markets often surge when their country runs into trouble because locals see equities as a relatively safe asset as companies either ramp up prices to offset spiralling inflation or benefit from a weaker domestic currency if they export overseas.

Big money international investors are in the opposite situation though. They usually have to convert whatever they hold back into dollars or another major currency, meaning they see a huge fall in value.

MSCI's dollar-denominated index of Turkish shares (.dMITR00000PUS), for example, slumped 9% during Tuesday's brutal lira rout, by which time it was down 20% this month and 30% since the start of the year.

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