#Iran Strikes: What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Attacks Tehran - Bloomberg

Iran Strikes: What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Attacks Tehran - Bloomberg

President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran creates new risks for a significant chunk of the world’s oil supply.

The Islamic Republic itself pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day, or 3% of global output, making it the fourth-largest producer in OPEC. But the nation wields far greater influence over the world’s energy supplies because of its strategic location.

Iran sits on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for about a fifth of the world’s crude from key suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. While the waterway remains open, some oil tankers were avoiding sailing through following the attacks and ships were piling up either side of the entrance, tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Oil markets are closed for the weekend, and there was no initial information on whether the attacks on Iran and the country’s retaliatory strikes across the region on Saturday targeted any energy assets.

Here are the pressure points to watch in oil as events unfold.

Iran’s Production

Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day, up from less than 2 million barrels a day in 2020 despite continued international sanctions. The country has become more adept at skirting these restrictions, sending about 90% of its exports to China.

The largest oil deposits are Ahvaz and Marun and the West Karun cluster, all in Khuzestan province.

Iran’s main refinery, built at Abadan in 1912, can process more than 500,000 barrels a day. Other key plants include the Bandar Abbas and Persian Gulf Star refineries, which handle crude and condensate, a type of ultra-light oil that’s abundant in Iran. The country’s capital Tehran has its own refinery.

For Iran’s overseas shipments, the Kharg Island terminal in the northern Persian Gulf is the main logistical hub. There was an explosion in the island Saturday, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, which didn’t provide more details or make any reference to the oil terminal.

Kharg Island has numerous loading berths, jetties, remote mooring points and tens of millions of barrels of crude storage capacity. The facilities have handled export volumes exceeding 2 million barrels a day in recent years.

US sanctions discourage most potential buyers of Iran’s crude, but private Chinese refiners have remained willing customers, provided they get steep discounts. Tehran relies for its international shipments on a fleet of aging tankers that mostly sail with their transponders deactivated to avoid detection.

Earlier this month, Iran was rapidly filling tankers at Kharg Island, probably in an effort to get as much crude on the water and move vessels out of harm’s way in case the facility was attacked. It was a move similar to last June ahead of Israeli and US attacks.

Any strike on Kharg Island would be a desperate blow for the country’s economy.

Iran’s main natural gas fields are further to the south along the Persian Gulf coast. Facilities at Assaluyeh and Bandar Abbas process, transport and ship gas and condensate for domestic use in power generation, heating, petrochemicals and other industries.

The area is the main point for Iran’s condensate exports. During the June war, an attack on a local gas plant sparked jitters among traders, but didn’t cause a lasting spike in oil prices because it didn’t affect any export facilities.

Regional Dangers

Iran’s supreme leader warned on Feb. 1 of a “regional war” if his country was attacked by the US. Tehran has claimed that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is within its power.

It would be an extreme step that the country has never taken, but remains a nightmare scenario for global markets.

Hormuz is the chokepoint for bulk of the Persian Gulf’s exports of crude, and also refined fuels like diesel and jet fuel. Qatar, one of world’s biggest liquefied natural gas exporters, also relies on the strait. At least three gas tankers going to or from Qatar had paused voyages following the latest attacks in the region, according to ship-tracking data.

While OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have some ability to reroute their shipments via pipelines that avoid Hormuz, a closing the strait would still cause a massive disruption to exports and spike crude prices.

There were signs of other Gulf producers also accelerating shipments in February. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments averaged about 7.3 million barrels a day in the first 24 days of the month, the most in almost three years. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were set to climb almost 600,000 barrels a day from the same period in January, according to data from Vortexa Ltd.

In the past, Tehran has made retaliatory strikes on some of its neighbors’ energy assets. In 2019, Saudi Arabia blamed Tehran for a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility that halted production equivalent to about 7% of global crude supply.

Many observers say it’s improbable that Iran could keep Hormuz closed for long, making lower-impact actions like harassment of shipping more likely.

During last year’s war with Israel and the US, nearly 1,000 vessels a day were having their GPS signals jammed near Iran’s coast, contributing to one tanker collision. Sea mines are another long-threatened option for deterring shipping.

Market Reactions

Oil surged the most in more than three years during the June war, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel in London. However, the gains quickly faded once it became clear that key regional oil infrastructure hadn’t been damaged.

Since then, concerns about an oversupply have dominated global markets, with crude in London ending 2025 about 18% lower than where it started.

Despite those fears of a glut, prices have surged 19% this year, partly due to fears of US strikes on Iran.

With the main oil futures closed for the weekend, there’s limited insight into how traders are reacting to the latest attacks. However, a retail trading product, run by IG Group Ltd., was pricing West Texas Intermediate as high as $75.33, a gain of as much as 12% from Friday’s close.

#SaudiArabia Investors Ramped Up US Stock Trading as Home Market Fell - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Investors Ramped Up US Stock Trading as Home Market Fell - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabian investors sharply increased their trading in US equities in 2025, redirecting capital away from a domestic market that ranked among the world’s worst performers.

Trading by Saudi financial institutions in US stocks rose to about 254 billion riyals ($68 billion) in the fourth quarter, more than double the level a year earlier, according to data from the Capital Market Authority. US equities accounted for nearly all trading conducted outside the kingdom in the fourth quarter.

At the same time, activity on the Saudi exchange contracted. Total domestic trading fell from more than 1.1 trillion riyals in early 2024 to about 574 billion riyals by the end of 2025.

The divergence reflects starkly different market trajectories. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell 9% in the fourth quarter, taking its annual decline to 13% amid oil-price volatility, fiscal pressures and regional tensions. US markets kept rising: The S&P 500 index gained more than 16% for the year, driven largely by tech stocks and investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

Although the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has been reducing its holdings of US-listed equities, it has still funneled significant capital into the country. Notable Public Investment Fund deals include last year’s $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts Inc. and a recent $3 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI via a subsidiary.

Saudi Arabia’s IPO market — once a bright spot — has also cooled, with a string of weak debuts and a slow start to new share sales this year. Meanwhile, companies in the US are preparing a new wave of large listings, including SpaceX, which could unseat Saudi Aramco as the world’s largest IPO, and Anthropic PBC and OpenAI Inc.

Even as local investors pull back from domestic equities, regulators have stepped up efforts to attract foreign capital. Authorities recently opened the market to a broader range of international investors and are considering rule changes that would allow majority foreign ownership of Saudi-listed companies, a move analysts say could unlock billions of dollars in passive inflows.

Regulators have also encouraged companies to allocate larger portions of IPOs to retail investors to boost local participation. Some banks have pushed back, arguing the policy risks forcing shares onto a segment where demand remains uneven while limiting allocations to foreign institutions.

#UAE stocks retreat on US-Iran impasse; oil prices jump | Reuters

UAE stocks retreat on US-Iran impasse; oil prices jump | Reuters

Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates declined on Friday, as investors took a cautious stance after talks between the U.S. and Iran ended in Geneva with no breakthroughs that could avert potential U.S. strikes amid a massive military buildup.

The two sides plan to resume negotiations after consultations in their countries' capitals, with technical-level discussions scheduled to take place next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X.

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Dubai's main market (.DFMGI), opens new tab plunged 1.8%, its second week of decline, dragged down by a 4.1% decrease in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab, its steepest intraday fall in nearly 10 months.

Top lenders Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab and Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), opens new tab dropped 5.2% and 2.4% respectively in an index-wide decline.

Separately, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise said on Thursday it will buy aircraft leasing firm Macquarie AirFinance for an enterprise value of about $7 billion, creating a combined fleet of 1,029 planes and one of the world's biggest lessors.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab tumbled 1.3%, led by a 2.4% dip in UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab, while Americana Restaurants International, which operates U.S. fast food brands in the Middle East, slid 5.6%.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi on Thursday raised a total of $3 billion from a two-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated bond sale, fixed income news service IFR reported, in its first issuance this year.

However, oil prices - a key contributor to Gulf's economies - jumped on Friday as uncertainty surrounding U.S. and Iran negotiations pushed prices higher.

Brent crude was up 1.96% to $72.14 a barrel by 1134 GMT.

#UAE: #AbuDhabi Set to Join EM Bond Rush With Sale of Dollar Debt - Bloomberg

UAE: Abu Dhabi Set to Join EM Bond Rush With Sale of Dollar Debt - Bloomberg

Abu Dhabi is set to raise $3 billion from selling dollar bonds in its first debt offering of the year.

The oil-rich emirate — the largest of seven in the United Arab Emirates — will issue five- and 10-year notes, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. Final spreads for both tranches are about 30 basis points below initial price thoughts, the person added. Order books peaked at more than $12.7 billion.

Abu Dhabi joins a slew of Gulf issuers who have already tapped debt markets this year to take advantage of favorable rate conditions and strong demand. It’s also been a busy year for sovereign issuers in emerging markets, with Saudi Arabia selling more than $10 billion worth of bonds. Israel and Turkey have each priced around $6 billion of notes.

Borrowing by Abu Dhabi’s government-related entities is expected to gradually increase to fund ambitious plans to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy, Fitch Ratings said. The agency notes the emirate maintains a low ratio of debt to gross domestic product — at 17.4% at the end of 2024, it’s well below the peer median of 48.8%.

Abu Dhabi issued $3.8 billion of eurobonds last year, while the emirate’s banks, companies and wealth funds raised about $15 billion.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said earlier this week that it will remove the United Arab Emirates from its emerging-market bond indexes by June, after the Middle Eastern nation exceeded the bank’s measures of wealth for three successive years. The UAE accounts for 4.1% of the JPMorgan’s global diversified EM bond universe.

JPMorgan’s removal of the UAE from its index is likely to trigger brief bond underperformance, similar to Qatar’s experience, but inflows from developed-market crossover investors and local buyers may offset the impact, making the overall effect largely negligible.

The bonds are expected to be rated AA by both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, the person said. That is two notches above France.

BNP Paribas SA, Emirates NBD Capital Ltd, First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Standard Chartered Bank Plc are the joint global coordinators for the sale.

Major Gulf markets ease as investors await US-Iran developments | Reuters

Major Gulf markets ease as investors await US-Iran developments | Reuters

Major Gulf stock markets fell on Thursday as investors maintained a risk-averse approach amid heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks set to take place in Geneva later in the day.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index (.TASI), opens new tab dropped 1.3%, marking its second consecutive week of decline. Losses were broad-based, led by energy stocks, with Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab dropping 3% — its steepest one-day decline in nine months — after the company confirmed damage at its Juaymah terminal and subsequent delivery cancellations.

Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab, the world's largest Islamic lender, fell 1.4%, and Saudi National Bank (1180.SE), opens new tab, the country's largest lender by assets, dropped 1.7%.

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is ramping up oil production and exports as part of contingency measures to mitigate potential disruptions from a U.S. strike on Iran.

The robust non-oil economic sector could aid a market rebound if geopolitical tensions subside, according to George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East.

Dubai's main stock index (.DFMGI), opens new tab retreated 0.8%, weighed down by banking and real estate stocks. Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab plunged over 4%, marking its worst daily performance in more than three months, while Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab, a leading real estate developer, fell 1.2%.

On Wednesday, the UAE's Central Bank unveiled plans to establish a sovereign financial cloud infrastructure in collaboration with G42 subsidiary Core42.

Abu Dhabi's index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab edged 0.4% lower, extending a cautious trading pattern after two flat sessions. The market remained near historical highs as investors awaited clearer regional developments. Alpha Dhabi Holding (ALPHADHABI.AD), opens new tab and Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD), opens new tab both dropped 0.4%.

However, strong fourth-quarter corporate earnings in Abu Dhabi and a positive economic outlook could provide upward momentum once geopolitical risks subside, though oil price fluctuations remain a key concern, said Pavel.

Bloomberg News reported that Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab is in talks with ADNOC and others regarding the sale of its stake in an Australian LNG project.

Qatar's stock index (.QSI), opens new tab tumbled 1.9%, marking its steepest single-day decline since mid-June, with all sectors closing in negative territory. Shares of Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the region's largest lender, dropped 3%, representing its biggest single-day loss in over five months. Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co (QAMC.QA), opens new tab sank 3.5%, its largest one-day drop in nearly 11 months.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.4%, seeking to recover from Wednesday's losses, as sentiment was bolstered by the IMF's completion of two reviews of Egypt's economic reform programme and a Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) review, paving the way for disbursements of about $2.3 billion.

Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab, the country's leading private lender, advanced 1.1%, while Telecom Egypt (ETEL.CA), opens new tab surged 3.4% after reporting a fourfold rise in its fourth-quarter profits.

The Kuwait Bourse (.BKP), opens new tab was closed on account of National Day and Liberation Day.

Gulf equities mixed as US-Iran talks loom; #Saudi extends decline | Reuters

Gulf equities mixed as US-Iran talks loom; Saudi extends decline | Reuters

Gulf stock markets were mixed on Wednesday, with Saudi Arabia extending its fall on fiscal concerns, as market participants awaited a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index (.TASI), opens new tab slipped 0.5%, deepening its losses as the kingdom's budget deficit widened quarter-on-quarter due to higher expenditures.

Losses were broad-based, with financial stocks leading the decline, including a 0.7% descent in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab, the world's largest Islamic lender, and a 0.8% drop in Saudi National Bank (1180.SE), opens new tab, the country's largest lender by assets.

In contrast, Power and Water Utility Co MARAFIQ (2083.SE), opens new tab soared 8.4%, marking its strongest daily performance in nearly five months after reporting a staggering 2,520.58% jump in its full-year profits.

Energy giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab dipped 0.4%.

Reuters reported earlier this week, citing trade sources, that Aramco had sold several shipments of ultra-light crude oil from its $100 billion Jafurah gas plant to U.S. majors and an Indian refiner, ahead of its first export later this month.

Although external pressures are weighing on most Gulf markets, underlying fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for a rebound once geopolitical tensions ease, said Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA.

Oil prices, a key catalyst for gulf markets, held around seven-month highs as investors weighed up the threat to oil supply from potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Dubai's main stock index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.1%, supported by a recovery in banking stocks.

Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab advanced 1.3%, rebounding from its steepest single-day decline in nearly three months in the previous session, while district cooling services provider EMPOWER (EMPOWER.DU), opens new tab gained 1.7%.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab closed flat in a volatile session, as uncertainty and cautious sentiment stalled recent gains. Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD), opens new tab declined 0.7%, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB.AD), opens new tab rose 1.3%.

Emirates Telecommunications' (EAND.AD), opens new tab shares fell 0.6%, snapping a three-day rally as optimism surrounding a CEO change and dividend announcement was tempered by profit-taking and uncertainty over the company's direction under new leadership.

Qatar's stock index (.QSI), opens new tab eased 0.2%, pressured by weakness in banking stocks. Telecommunications firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA), opens new tab fell 1.5%, while Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab slipped 0.2%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab trimmed early losses but still closed 2.7% lower, continuing a volatile trend of sharp losses and recoveries in recent sessions.

All sectors ended in negative territory, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab, the country's largest private lender, and real estate developer Talaat Moustafa Group (TMGH.CA), opens new tab both losing 4%.

The Kuwait Bourse (.BKP), opens new tab was closed on account of National Day and Liberation Day.

JPMorgan Says #UAE Is Too Rich to Be an Emerging Market - Bloomberg

JPMorgan Says UAE Is Too Rich to Be an Emerging Market - Bloomberg

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it will remove the United Arab Emirates from its emerging-market bond indexes by June after the Middle Eastern nation exceeded the bank’s measures of wealth for three successive years.

The UAE, which accounts for 4.1% of the JPMorgan’s global diversified EM bond universe, will make its exit in four equal decrements beginning March 31, the New York-based bank said in a statement. The country will also fully leave the euro-denominated bond grouping — where it has a 1% weight — on March 31.

The growing riches of Middle Eastern countries have contrasted with their developing-market status in recent years, pushing JPMorgan to remove Kuwait and Qatar from its EM bond indexes last year. The gauges are widely tracked by investors and the loss of three investment-graded countries within a year could reduce inflows into them in the short term, and change the mix of investors over the longer term.

As a result of the removal, the headline spread — also called the spread to worst — for the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Diversified is expected to widen by 10 basis points at the end of the phase-out period, according to JPMorgan index researchers including Kumaran Ram.

That spread, which represents the extra yield investors demand to own EM bonds rather than US Treasuries, stood at 247 basis points on Monday. The spread on UAE bonds is currently about 65 basis points.

UAE’s dollar bonds have rallied along with their peers on the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Total Return Index, handing total returns of 1.5% this year. The country is rated Aa2 at Moody’s, AA at S&P Global Ratings and AA Minus at Fitch Ratings, among the highest grades achieved by an emerging market.

The reclassification recognizes that the UAE’s per capita income as well as its cost of living are at developed-market levels — key criteria followed by JPMorgan. The Gulf state’s gross domestic product amounted to nearly $54,000 per person in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“In comparison to Qatar and Kuwait, the UAE’s aggregate weight in the index across sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns is higher,” said Fady Gendy, a portfolio manager at Arqaam Capital in Dubai. “Nonetheless, the impact should be relatively muted as actively-benchmarked fund managers are already underweight the region due to its tight spread.”

The removal of UAE from JPMorgan’s emerging-market universe means EM-focused funds that track the index would sell its bonds. The outflows could lead to a brief underperformance in the bonds as was seen in Qatar’s bonds after that country’s exit last year, Gendy said.

Nevertheless, money managers focused on developed markets but looking for diversification opportunities could start buying, helping to reverse that underperformance, he said. Demand from those so-called crossover investors as well as local buyers could mean the net impact of the reclassification will be negligible, he said.

“Any sizable spread widening on the back of forced selling by passive mandates and derisking by active managers will be seen as a buying opportunity by the local buyer base, which are generally benchmark-agnostic and yield focused,” he said.

Other potential investors who may be interested in UAE bonds could be those from the rest of the Middle East as well as Asian asset managers who are sensitive to credit quality, he said.

The bond reclassification comes even as UAE’s stocks are undergoing a valuation re-rating, with the benchmark index making the best start to a year since 2014.

#Saudi Wealth Fund Unit to Plow More Money Into Private Credit - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Fund Unit to Plow More Money Into Private Credit - Bloomberg

A unit of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund plans to start funneling more money into private credit, joining other Gulf entities in looking beyond the upheaval roiling parts of the industry overseas.

Jada Fund of Funds — a PIF subsidiary — recently struck a deal to invest with India-based venture debt firm Stride Ventures to help drive capital into the economy, according to Jada Chief Executive Bandr Alhomaly. Stride aims to deploy $200 million into the kingdom in the next two years.

In recent months, the private credit market in the US has come under increased scrutiny over valuations and quality of lending. New York-based Blue Owl Capital Inc. recently shut the gates on one of its funds, fueling a decline in its shares and a drop in other stocks with investments in the space.

The Jada tie-up shows how many Gulf entities continue to bet on private credit, with some executives noting the asset class is still too young in the Middle East to generate widespread concern around risk.

Jada’s Alhomaly said that while the pool of players in private credit is growing, the Saudi market is still nascent and will likely see more regulation as it grows in size.

“Private credit remains significantly untapped in the Saudi market compared to the rest of the world so we really want to increase our allocation,” Alhomaly said in an interview, adding that its focus is on investing in funds that do deals in the kingdom. “It’s a priority asset class for us.”

Launched in 2018 with about $1 billion in capital from the PIF, Jada has deployed almost $600 million across some 50 funds, according to Alhomaly. Its mandate involves developing the private capital ecosystem, while advancing the sovereign wealth fund’s agenda to drive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic diversification plan.

Jada has in the past focused on venture capital and private equity, with a goal of driving funding to small- to medium-sized enterprises. It will continue to focus on financing SMEs through private credit as Saudi banks slow lending growth, Alhomaly said.

More players in the Gulf are looking to capitalize on new private credit deals sprouting from the need for alternative financing. The $580 billion Qatar Investment Authority is investing in a private credit firm run by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partners. In Abu Dhabi, Mubadala Investment Co. has been a prolific backer of private credit.

Burjeel Holdings Courts Global Investors for Debut Dollar Sukuk Offering - Bloomberg #AbuDhabi #UAE

Burjeel Holdings Courts Global Investors for Debut Dollar Sukuk Offering - Bloomberg

A Middle East healthcare provider backed by Abu Dhabi royalty is looking to raise cash from international fixed-income investors for the first time.

Abu Dhabi’s Burjeel Holdings Plc has met both global and local fund managers to sound out appetite for its potential debut dollar sukuk, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s looking to showcase the business and dispel fears about the industry following the collapse of peer NMC Health Plc six years ago.

Burjeel did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The firm provides healthcare services in the United Arab Emirates and Oman, and is growing its presence in Saudi Arabia.

The company enjoys the backing of an investment vehicle linked to Abu Dhabi’s ruling dynasty. International Holding Company, a conglomerate led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser and brother to the country’s president, bought a 15% stake in Burjeel ahead of the firm’s 2022 local initial public offering. Tahnoon also runs the $1 trillion Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

Burjeel’s roadshow has given the company the opportunity to reassure investors that what happened at Abu Dhabi-based hospital operator NMC Health has no wider implications for the sector as a whole, the people said. NMC fell into administration after short seller Muddy Waters Capital LLC accused the firm of overpaying for assets, overstating cash balances and understating its debt in late 2019.

Bond and sukuk issuance from Middle East healthcare businesses is rare. The last hard currency deals were placed in 2018 by NMC, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The restructuring of the group’s debt pile dragged on for years after the company revealed more than $4 billion of undisclosed borrowings.

Most Gulf equities retreat on investor caution ahead of US-Iran talks | Reuters

Most Gulf equities retreat on investor caution ahead of US-Iran talks | Reuters

Gulf markets reversed early trends by the closing bell on Tuesday, as investors adopted a cautious stance in a volatile session ahead of a third round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index (.TASI), opens new tab retreated 0.7% after a modest recovery in the prior session, as the kingdom's budget deficit widened quarter-on-quarter due to higher expenditures.

Losses were broad-based, with Saudi Telecom Company (7010.SE), opens new tab down 2.1% and Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab shedding 0.5%.

Reuters reported, citing trade sources, that energy giant Aramco has sold several shipments of ultra-light crude oil from its $100 billion Jafurah gas plant to U.S. majors and an Indian refiner, ahead of its first export later this month.

The market is well-positioned to build on its strong fundamentals as external pressures ease, said Antoine Nadaf, Country Manager at Givtrade.

In Dubai, the main stock index (.DFMGI), opens new tab declined 0.6%, following a nearly 2% surge in the prior session. Weighed down by banking stocks, Emirates NBD Bank saw its sharpest one-day drop in nearly three months, tumbling over 4%, while Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), opens new tab retreated 1.6%.

Abu Dhabi's stock index ended flat, holding its ground after rebounding in the prior session from a two-day sell-off at record highs. ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS.AD), opens new tab edged down 0.3%, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB.AD), opens new tab gained 0.3%, continuing Monday's advance.

Nadaf noted that Abu Dhabi market retains upside potential, backed by robust fourth-quarter results and solid economic projections, though oil price volatility remains a key watchpoint.

Oil prices, a key catalyst to gulf markets, hovered near seven-month highs, with traders assessing risks to supply from any military escalation as another round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks loomed.

Qatar's stock index (.QSI), opens new tab added 0.1%, driven by banking shares. Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the region's largest lender, gained 0.5%, extending momentum from its best daily performance since mid-October in the previous session.

U.S.-based private credit investment firm 5C Investment Partners announced a strategic partnership with the Qatar Investment Authority to expand its direct lending platform.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab slipped 0.9% with a sell-off led by banking stocks. Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab, the country's largest private lender, fell 1.3%.

Talaat Moustafa Group (TMGH.CA), opens new tab declined 1.6%, reversing gains from the previous session, after the real estate developer reported a 43% rise in full-year profits on Monday and secured a promotion to the mid cap segment of the FTSE Russell Global Equity Index Series.

The International Monetary Fund said its board would meet on February 25 to review Egypt's Extended Fund Facility programme, a move that could unlock $2.3 billion in disbursements.

Exclusive: #Kuwait's KPC draws BlackRock, Brookfield, EIG to possible $7 billion pipeline deal, sources say | Reuters

Exclusive: Kuwait's KPC draws BlackRock, Brookfield, EIG to possible $7 billion pipeline deal, sources say | Reuters

National oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has held early stage talks with a large group of potential investors over a $7 billion stake sale in its crude oil pipelines, three sources familiar with the matter said, following similar moves by Gulf peers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, EIG Partners and buyout group KKR are among those that have shown interest, the sources said. Also showing interest are Chinese state enterprises China Silk Road Fund and China Merchants Capital, along with I Squared Capital and Macquarie Infrastructure Partners, the sources said.

The transaction is structured with around $1.5 billion in equity and the remainder financed through debt, the three sources said.

Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah, KPC's deputy chairman and chief executive, is leading a steering committee overseeing the process, which sources described as being managed with close, hands-on oversight, with the committee convening every few weeks to monitor progress.

"We are studying the possibility of leasing and re-leasing (oil) pipelines in the country," Al-Sabah told reporters in September. "The pipelines are assets owned by KPC and do not generate direct financial returns. If there is an opportunity to secure additional financing through these assets... then welcome," he added.

BlackRock, Brookfield, Macquarie, KKR, EIG, I Squared declined to comment. KPC, China Silk Road Fund and China Merchants Capital did not respond to requests for comment.

KPC is now approaching other banks to join HSBC in underwriting the debt portion of the deal, two of the sources said.

Two of the sources said that the process to formally launch the oil pipeline network stake sale could start as soon as the end of this month, as Reuters reported last month.

The concession, said to span 25 years according to the sources, faces a testing backdrop. Crude oil hovering around $71 per barrel is weighing on projected volumes and returns, with geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region presenting an additional layer of complexity, one of the sources said.

The move echoes deals in recent years by Saudi Aramco, opens new tab, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Bahrain's Bapco Energies to raise funds from their pipeline infrastructure networks. Such deals provide upfront cash in return for tariff payments over time.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp in late 2023 said it will spend $410 billion through 2040 on a strategy,, opens new tab that aims to boost production capacity to 4 million barrels per day.

BlackRock, which last year signed a similar deal for Aramco's Jafurah gas project processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, will open an office in Kuwait and has appointed Ali AlQadhi to lead operations in the country, Kuwait's state news agency said in September.

#SaudiArabia’s Budget Deficit Widens to Five-Year High on Lower Oil Revenue - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Budget Deficit Widens to Five-Year High on Lower Oil Revenue - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit widened in the fourth quarter to the highest level in five years, as lower oil prices put pressure on the kingdom’s finances.

The government posted a budget deficit of 94.9 billion riyals ($25.3 billion) in last three months of 2025. That brought the total shortfall for the year to nearly 276.6 billion riyals, up from 115.6 billion riyals in 2024, according to the Ministry of Finance. The figure for all of last year equated to roughly 5.5% of gross domestic product.

Non-oil revenue climbed to about 122.6 billion riyals in the fourth quarter of 2025, while oil revenue slid to around 154.2 billion riyals from 170.8 billion riyals a year earlier, according to the ministry data.

The kingdom has been running budget deficits since late 2022. Bloomberg Economics estimates its oil fiscal breakeven price at $97 per barrel in 2025, or $114 when the sovereign wealth fund’s domestic spending is included. That’s far below today’s price for Brent of $71.

The wide gap has led to Saudi Arabia borrowing much more on international bond markets. It’s also caused the government to start delaying or scaling back some of the huge projects that are part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify from petroleum.

Saudi officials expect the fiscal deficit for this year to decrease to 3.3% of GDP. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. estimate the figure will be higher, at 5%-6%.

#Qatar Lender Readies AT1 Deal as Sales Boom in Middle East - Bloomberg

Qatar Lender Readies AT1 Deal as Sales Boom in Middle East - Bloomberg

Qatar’s oldest private lender plans to sell its first Additional Tier 1 bond since 2021 as it joins a spate of issuers offering the risky bank debt in the region.

The Commercial Bank P.S.Q.C. has mandated banks for a planned dollar-denominated perpetual sale of the junior subordinated notes, according to a person familiar with the matter. The deal will follow investor calls starting today and the offering will be subject to market conditions, the person added.

High-yielding AT1 debt has seen strong demand in recent sales, with investors attracted by the fact that the borrowers are less exposed than others to broader market concerns such as AI disruption and geopolitics. Subordinated bond issuance from the Middle East and Turkey has already reached $7.88 billion this year, following a record near-$29 billion of issuance last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Qatari lender has an existing perpetual bond that can be called next month, with a reset margin of 387.4 basis points over the US Treasury benchmark. Earlier in February UAE-based Mashreqbank sold a US dollar-denominated perpetual non-call 5.5-year AT1 with a reset margin of 251.6 basis points.

AT1 bond sales from the region are running at their fastest year-to-date pace in at least a decade, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi lenders are leading issuance so far in 2026, having accounted for almost half of the AT1s last year as the kingdom grappled with the spending demand of its mammoth projects.

BofA Securities, DBS Bank Ltd., HSBC Holdings Plc, Mashreq, Banco Santander SA and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp have been hired as joint lead managers and joint bookrunners for CBQ’s sale. The deal is planned in Regulation S format only.

Issuer Profile
Debt distribution: CBQK QD Equity DDIS

Capital structure: CBQK QD Equity CAST

Related securities: CBQK QD Equity RELS

Ratings history: CBQK QD Equity CRPR

#Saudi Firms Advance IPO Plans in Boost for Flagging Local Bourse - Bloomberg

Saudi Firms Advance IPO Plans in Boost for Flagging Local Bourse - Bloomberg

Several Saudi Arabian firms are pressing ahead with plans for local listings, testing investor appetite in Riyadh at a time when volatile oil prices and geopolitical risks have weighed on the benchmark index.

Companies now looking to go public cut across a swathe of sectors, from an oil field services provider and a manufacturer to a telecommunications firm and a contractor. This would come as a boost for the kingdom, which hasn’t seen any significant listings in 2026, compared to at least three by this time last year.

Deals in the offing include AlKhorayef Petroleum, which has begun working with Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BSF Capital on a potential share sale, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.

The Dammam-based company operates across the Middle East, Africa and Latin America and is controlled by AlKhorayef Group, whose interests span industrial services, lubricants and water solutions. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is among its shareholders.

Elsewhere, ArcelorMittal Tubular Products Jubail — backed by the PIF and steelmaker ArcelorMittal SA — is working with Moelis & Co. on a listing and is looking to add banks to assist on the deal, some of the people said.

Telecommunications provider Etihad Salam Telecom Co. is also preparing for an IPO arranged by BSF Capital, while Mutlaq AlGhowairi Contracting is exploring a share sale that could value it as up to 15 billion riyals ($4 billion), Bloomberg News has reported.

No final decisions have been taken on any of the transactions. Representatives for Al Khorayef Group, ArcelorMittal, Etihad Salam and the banks declined to comment, while the PIF did not respond to a request for comment.

If the deals materialize, they would help boost volumes on the Riyadh bourse but valuations will be closely watched. Companies raised $4.2 billion in the kingdom last year, though just two of the 10 largest IPOs trade above their offer price, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That marks a reversal from previous years, when firms routinely surged on debut. The recent under-performanceof new listings has been underpinned by a slump in the benchmark Tadawul All Share Index, which was among the worst performing emerging-market bourses of last year.

Those declines prompted even the PIF — central to building out Saudi Arabia’s equity markets by selling down stakes in its portfolio companies — to slow the pace of share sales, Bloomberg News has reported.

A push toward more localization of IPOs may also be stalling momentum. Several banks have pressed Saudi regulators to rethink guidance encouraging issuers to give local retail investors a bigger piece of their offerings amid concerns the efforts risk further weakening listing performance, Bloomberg News has reported.

The regulator is also trying to boost international inflows into equity markets by lifting restrictions on foreign investment.

#UAE, #SaudiArabia, #Qatar: Prolific Private Credit, Buyout Backers Face Test - Bloomberg

UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar: Prolific Private Credit, Buyout Backers Face Test - Bloomberg

Middle Eastern wealth funds have historically ranked as the biggest backers of private equity and many have increasingly been pushing into private credit. Over the past few weeks, there’s been some anxiety in both those pockets of finance.

First, Blue Owl shut the gates on one of its funds, preventing investors from withdrawing cash, and said it would sell assets to return investor capital. And on Monday, a report from Bain laid out some stark numbers on the state of private equity — distributions as a percentage of net asset value are at the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

The Bain report was published at a delicate moment for buyout firms in the region. Many of the largest Gulf wealth funds have already become pickier about who they work with. Some have sounded alarm over valuation practices and returns, while others have complained that pockets of the market have become crowded.

Yet, the industry remains front and center in the Middle East. For instance, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is teaming up with Orix to start a $2.5 billion private equity fund targeting Japanese companies, Bloomberg News reported in November. And Kuwait’s pension fund is looking to restart private equity allocations after a years-long hiatus.

Meanwhile, many regional behemoths have made deeper inroads into private credit. Earlier today, my colleague Olivia Fishlow reported that the $580 billion Qatar Investment Authority is investing in a private credit firm run by former Goldman Sachs partners.

Over in Abu Dhabi, Mubadala has been a prolific backer of private credit, which has been among the fund’s top-performing asset classes. It has built up a $20 billion portfolio, supported by relationships with the likes of Apollo Global Management, Carlyle and KKR. In 2023, it formed a partnership with Blue Owl, committing $1 billion to the firm’s credit platform.

To be sure, those private credit and buyout outlays are a sliver of the nearly $5 trillion of assets overseen by Middle Eastern wealth funds.

Shortly after a pair of collapses exposed losses for banks and investment firms, and spooked investors late last year, a top executive at Mubadala batted away concerns over structural issues within the sector.

“We’ve had four fantastic years in private credit, and we know that’s likely to perform cyclically,” Waleed Al Mokarrab Al Muhairi, Mubadala’s deputy group chief executive officer, said at the time. “I don’t think it’s going to implode in any shape, way or form.”