Dubai stocks are off to their strongest start in 12 years as investors bet on the emirate’s resilient economy and look beyond volatile oil and artificial-intelligence trades.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index, which includes companies like Emirates NBD Bank PJSC and Emaar Properties PJSC, has gained more than 11% this year.
The move builds on the benchmark’s blistering 300% rally that started almost six years ago, powered by growing consumption, a property boom and expanding financial services. While oil remains the main engine of growth for markets like Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, Dubai generates 95% of its gross domestic product from sectors such as real estate, financials and retail.
“I would highlight the strength of Dubai’s non-oil growth model as a key differentiator versus neighboring markets,” said Dominic Bokor-Ingram, a fund manager for emerging and frontier markets at Fiera Capital in London.
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About 60% of this year’s gains have come from Emirates NBD and Emaar group.
Emirates NBD is up 33%, with analysts pointing to strong net interest margins and loan growth. Emaar companies, known for the world’s tallest building Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall, have also posted double-digit gains on solid earnings as the property boom continues, despite concerns about oversupply in the luxury segment.
The UAE as a whole is set to outpace regional peers on growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The International Monetary Fund forecasts real gross domestic product growth of 5% in 2026.
The strong economy translated directly into company performance, according to Bokor-Ingram. “Population growth, tourism and increased urban activity are clearly visible in revenue and earnings growth for listed names,” he added.
Valuations of the market also remain attractive. The Dubai stock benchmark has risen more than 18 times as much as MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market index over the past five years. Yet, it is currently trading at 11 times forward earnings, which compares to 13 times for developing-markets peers.
Not all investors are convinced the outperformance can continue. Dubai may lag behind larger emerging-markets peers that benefit from AI advances, especially as its biggest companies grow at a slower pace by comparison, according to Sebastian Kahlfeld, a portfolio manager at DWS.
Still, he sees the market benefiting if investor interest in AI-exposed companies gets weaker or breaks. The emirate’s strong growth and lack of reliance on volatile commodities like oil are also set to support its stock market in the months ahead.
“Absent a major local security shock or a global credit disruption there is little to stop Dubai asset prices continuing to climb higher,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging-markets equity and geopolitics strategy at Tellimer.
About 60% of this year’s gains have come from Emirates NBD and Emaar group.
Emirates NBD is up 33%, with analysts pointing to strong net interest margins and loan growth. Emaar companies, known for the world’s tallest building Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall, have also posted double-digit gains on solid earnings as the property boom continues, despite concerns about oversupply in the luxury segment.
The UAE as a whole is set to outpace regional peers on growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The International Monetary Fund forecasts real gross domestic product growth of 5% in 2026.
The strong economy translated directly into company performance, according to Bokor-Ingram. “Population growth, tourism and increased urban activity are clearly visible in revenue and earnings growth for listed names,” he added.
Valuations of the market also remain attractive. The Dubai stock benchmark has risen more than 18 times as much as MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market index over the past five years. Yet, it is currently trading at 11 times forward earnings, which compares to 13 times for developing-markets peers.
Not all investors are convinced the outperformance can continue. Dubai may lag behind larger emerging-markets peers that benefit from AI advances, especially as its biggest companies grow at a slower pace by comparison, according to Sebastian Kahlfeld, a portfolio manager at DWS.
Still, he sees the market benefiting if investor interest in AI-exposed companies gets weaker or breaks. The emirate’s strong growth and lack of reliance on volatile commodities like oil are also set to support its stock market in the months ahead.
“Absent a major local security shock or a global credit disruption there is little to stop Dubai asset prices continuing to climb higher,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging-markets equity and geopolitics strategy at Tellimer.
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