Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf bourses end higher; UAE shares extend losses
Most Gulf stock markets ended higher on Thursday, though UAE equities fell again, extending losses from the prior session when its exchanges reopened after a two-day suspension prompted by Iran's weekend missile-and-drone barrage on the Emirates.
Following the reopening, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges temporarily set a 5% lower price limit on securities to try to reduce volatility.
Dubai's main share index closed 1.3% lower after falling as much as 4.2% earlier in the session, with top lender Emirates NBD and blue-chip developer Emaar Properties both losing 4.9%.
Budget airline Air Arabia dropped 4.9%, but utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority advanced 5.3%.
XTB MENA analyst Milad Azar said that while the market may remain sensitive to regional developments, Dubai's underlying fundamentals are strong and could support a rebound.
Abu Dhabi's index retreated 2.2%, with First Abu Dhabi Bank falling 1.2% and Aldar Properties down 5%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank tumbled 4.7%.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index finished 0.8% higher, with Al Rajhi Bank rising 1.7%.
The Saudi index posted a weekly gain of 0.6%.
Al Moammar Information System surged 10% to its daily maximum limit on a deal with AI firm HUMAIN to design and build a data centre.
ACWA Power and Dallah Healthcare gained 3.5% and 6.1% respectively, following increases in full-year net profit.
The Saudi market bounce was driven by higher oil prices after the initial jolt from recent geopolitical tensions. Azar said stocks looked set to build on the recovery, supported by expectations of firmer energy prices as disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transport route.
Oil prices surged more than 3%, extending a rally as the war raised fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies.
Shares in oil major Saudi Aramco, however, eased 0.7%.
The Qatari benchmark rose 1%, with Qatar National Bank, the Gulf's biggest lender by assets, up 3.2%.
Gains were limited by a 2.5% fall in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar and a 7% slide in Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co .
Qatar, the Gulf's biggest liquefied natural gas producer, declared force majeure on gas exports on Wednesday, with sources saying a return to normal production may take at least a month.
Oman's and Kuwait's indexes both advanced 1.3%, while the Bahraini index fell 1.1%.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index climbed 2.3%, snapping a four-day losing streak, led by a 3.7% gain in Commercial International Bank.
However, the Egyptian index recorded a weekly decline of 3.5%, its steepest drop since June.
Thursday, 5 March 2026
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
Mideast Stocks: #UAE bourses slide after markets reopen from two-day halt during Iranian attacks
Mideast Stocks: UAE bourses slide after markets reopen from two-day halt during Iranian attacks
Stocks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi sank on Wednesday as markets reopened after a two-day halt following Iran's unprecedented wave of missile and drone attacks on the UAE over the weekend. U.S. forces continued nonstop operations against Iran on Wednesday as Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iranian missile and air-defence targets.
Dubai's main share index slid 4.7%, its biggest intraday drop since May 2022, in broad-based declines led by blue-chip developer Emaar Properties 4.9%, while budget airline Air Arabia retreated 5%.
Airlines and the tourism sector rushed to respond to more than 20,000 flight cancellations, while governments moved quickly to repatriate travellers stranded in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, top lender Emirates NBD dropped 5%. In Abu Dhabi, the index ended 1.9% lower from the 3.6% loss in early trade, with the country's biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank losing 5%. Among energy stocks, Dana Gas and TAQA were down 5% and 4.9%, respectively.
ADNOC — the parent across the fuel distribution, drilling, logistics, and gas chain — came under pressure, the entire complex sold off in tandem.
Aldar Properties was down 5%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank plunged 4.9%. The UAE's third-largest lender by assets said it has restored its mobile banking app after a disruption that also hit its contact centre, with some features still being reinstated.
Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges said on Tuesday that they would temporarily set the lower price limit for securities at -5% from -10%.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange has told listed companies to immediately assess financial and operational exposure and promptly disclose any material information that could influence investor decisions. The UAE's Capital Markets Authority closed the ADX and DFM on March 2 and March 3, an extraordinary step outside usual holiday and mourning closures.
The closure froze trading in billions of dollars' worth of listed assets as investors awaited clarity on the scale of damage from the weekend strikes on airports, ports and residential areas across both emirates.
It sent investors the message that regulators are prioritising orderly price discovery over a volatility rollercoaster, said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone.
"Because the Saudi market has already absorbed the initial shock, recovering from a 5% Sunday drop to post gains by Tuesday, the UAE reopening is expected to follow this recovery template to some extent," Assiri said.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index finished 1.2% higher, on course to extend the previous session's gains, led by an increase of 1.3% in Al Rajhi Bank .
Jabal Omar Development - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - advanced about 6%, following a steep rise in annual profit.
Elsewhere, budget airline flynas jumped 4.3%, ending a three-session losing streak.
However, oil major Saudi Aramco slipped 2.3%. Oil prices rose about 1% as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from past sessions after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Qatar, the index added 0.8%, with Qatar Islamic Bank advancing 2.2%.
However, Industries Qatar eased 0.3%, as the petrochemical maker announced plans to suspend and cut some products.
Muscat's index rose 0.4%, whereas the Bahraini index was down 1.3%.
The Kuwaiti index fell 0.6%.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index retreated 0.6%.
Stocks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi sank on Wednesday as markets reopened after a two-day halt following Iran's unprecedented wave of missile and drone attacks on the UAE over the weekend. U.S. forces continued nonstop operations against Iran on Wednesday as Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iranian missile and air-defence targets.
Dubai's main share index slid 4.7%, its biggest intraday drop since May 2022, in broad-based declines led by blue-chip developer Emaar Properties 4.9%, while budget airline Air Arabia retreated 5%.
Airlines and the tourism sector rushed to respond to more than 20,000 flight cancellations, while governments moved quickly to repatriate travellers stranded in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, top lender Emirates NBD dropped 5%. In Abu Dhabi, the index ended 1.9% lower from the 3.6% loss in early trade, with the country's biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank losing 5%. Among energy stocks, Dana Gas and TAQA were down 5% and 4.9%, respectively.
ADNOC — the parent across the fuel distribution, drilling, logistics, and gas chain — came under pressure, the entire complex sold off in tandem.
Aldar Properties was down 5%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank plunged 4.9%. The UAE's third-largest lender by assets said it has restored its mobile banking app after a disruption that also hit its contact centre, with some features still being reinstated.
Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges said on Tuesday that they would temporarily set the lower price limit for securities at -5% from -10%.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange has told listed companies to immediately assess financial and operational exposure and promptly disclose any material information that could influence investor decisions. The UAE's Capital Markets Authority closed the ADX and DFM on March 2 and March 3, an extraordinary step outside usual holiday and mourning closures.
The closure froze trading in billions of dollars' worth of listed assets as investors awaited clarity on the scale of damage from the weekend strikes on airports, ports and residential areas across both emirates.
It sent investors the message that regulators are prioritising orderly price discovery over a volatility rollercoaster, said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone.
"Because the Saudi market has already absorbed the initial shock, recovering from a 5% Sunday drop to post gains by Tuesday, the UAE reopening is expected to follow this recovery template to some extent," Assiri said.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index finished 1.2% higher, on course to extend the previous session's gains, led by an increase of 1.3% in Al Rajhi Bank .
Jabal Omar Development - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - advanced about 6%, following a steep rise in annual profit.
Elsewhere, budget airline flynas jumped 4.3%, ending a three-session losing streak.
However, oil major Saudi Aramco slipped 2.3%. Oil prices rose about 1% as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from past sessions after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Qatar, the index added 0.8%, with Qatar Islamic Bank advancing 2.2%.
However, Industries Qatar eased 0.3%, as the petrochemical maker announced plans to suspend and cut some products.
Muscat's index rose 0.4%, whereas the Bahraini index was down 1.3%.
The Kuwaiti index fell 0.6%.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index retreated 0.6%.
The Gulf’s safe-haven status is under fire #FT
The Gulf’s safe-haven status is under fire
For decades the fossil fuel-rich Gulf states have marketed themselves to investors, businesses and tourists as islands of stability in the otherwise volatile Middle East. But after the US and Israel launched their war against Iran over the weekend, Tehran has lashed out by firing waves of missiles and drones at the region, which is home to several American military bases. It is the nightmare scenario Gulf leaders have long feared.
Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, the Gulf has considered Iran a malign force. In recent years, they have sought to manage the relationship by de-escalating with Tehran and bolstering diplomatic relations. As US President Donald Trump stepped up his threats against the Islamic republic, regional officials publicly stated that they would not allow their territory to be used to attack their neighbour. The message was clear: they wanted to stay out of a conflict they had urged the US to avoid. But once Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignited the war, and assassinated supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has dramatically raised the stakes by targeting the US’s Arab allies.
Tehran has struck military sites, US embassies, economic infrastructure and civilian buildings. At least a handful of people have been killed and hundreds injured. Airports were closed and airlines grounded. A defining image of Tehran’s reckless retaliation was that of projectiles streaking across the skyscraper-laden night sky of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, the region’s pre-eminent trade and tourism hub. Expats that came for the sun and low taxes were suddenly exposed to a version of the Middle East they did not bargain for.
In Saudi Arabia, which has been desperate to lure foreign investment to help diversify its economy, Iranian drones struck its largest oil refinery and the US embassy in Riyadh. Neighbouring Qatar, one of the world’s top exporters of liquefied natural gas, halted LNG production after its energy facilities were targeted. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital choke point for global commodities — has also ground to a halt.
Iran may have calculated that high-profile attacks would pressure the US to de-escalate. Instead, they have angered Gulf leaders who had lobbied for a diplomatic solution. For now, their air defence systems appear to be taking out most of the projectiles. How long they can continue to do so will depend on the duration of the war, their ability to replenish stocks of air defence interceptors and Iran’s capacity to sustain its attacks under relentless bombing. Gulf leaders are also considering whether to take more offensive steps.
Although businesses are exploring contingencies, planned vacations are being cancelled, and tourists are trying to find flights home, it is too early to gauge the long-term consequences to the region’s economic image. It is, however, clear that Trump and Netanyahu’s lack of clear goals and the absence of planning for a postwar Iran has created dangerous unpredictability. If the US halts the conflict with the regime intact, Gulf states will have a wounded tiger on their doorstep that has proven itself able and willing to strike at capitals. If the regime collapses, they could have another failed, fragmented state in their backyard. A stable transition to a more moderate, friendlier government in Iran seems unlikely.
The Gulf has done its best to project calm and the UAE, in particular, has a knack for regeneration. But even if there is a miraculous, rapid de-escalation, Iran’s attacks this week have shown the world that the Gulf is not insulated from the fragility and conflict that has plagued much of the rest of the Middle East. The region’s brand is likely to survive, but its sheen may be wearing off.
Tuesday, 3 March 2026
#Qatar curtailment exacerbates Iran war aluminium fears | Reuters
Qatar curtailment exacerbates Iran war aluminium fears | Reuters
The impact of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on the aluminium sector deepened on Tuesday after QatarEnergy said it was halting production of the metal.
The state-owned company had already suspended production of liquefied natural gas on Monday following Iranian drone attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, sending natural gas prices soaring.
In a statement on Tuesday, it said it was also stopping production of some downstream products, including aluminium.
QatarEnergy holds 51% in Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co, one of the shareholders in the 648,000-metric-ton-per-year Qatalum smelter alongside Norway's Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL), opens new tab.
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION ARE UNCLEAR
Hydro said QatarEnergy supplied gas to Qatalum, but that the "specific implications for aluminium production at Qatalum are currently unclear." Qatalum did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 3.8% to a one-month high at $3,315 a ton before easing to $3,250 as of 1541 GMT.
European aluminium premiums, paid on top of LME prices for physical metal, have risen to $378 a ton for March and $428 for April , the highest levels in 3-1/2 years. Qatar accounted for less than 1% of the EU's primary aluminium imports in 2025, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.
Still, traders said the Qatar stoppage raised fears others in the region would also soon stop producing. Gulf Cooperation Council countries supplied 8% of the world's aluminium last year.
"The region is both a significant producer and exporter of aluminium by sea and also relies on imports of bauxite and alumina to keep smelters running," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Kpler's lead metals analyst Ben Ayre put the GCC's average monthly alumina imports at 680,000 tons. Only 61,000 tons of alumina on the water bound for the region's smelters are already in the Gulf, he said. Another 57,000 tons destined for Oman would not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed for shipping.
"There is an additional 377,000 tons en route and we have 160,000 tons lined up to depart Australia later in the month," Ayre said.
Meanwhile, almost 10% of aluminium inventories in the LME warehousing network , 45,325 tons, were ordered to be removed from storage in Port Klang, Malaysia, exchange data showed on Tuesday, suggesting traders are looking to cash in on supply shortages.
The impact of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on the aluminium sector deepened on Tuesday after QatarEnergy said it was halting production of the metal.
The state-owned company had already suspended production of liquefied natural gas on Monday following Iranian drone attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, sending natural gas prices soaring.
In a statement on Tuesday, it said it was also stopping production of some downstream products, including aluminium.
QatarEnergy holds 51% in Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co, one of the shareholders in the 648,000-metric-ton-per-year Qatalum smelter alongside Norway's Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL), opens new tab.
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION ARE UNCLEAR
Hydro said QatarEnergy supplied gas to Qatalum, but that the "specific implications for aluminium production at Qatalum are currently unclear." Qatalum did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 3.8% to a one-month high at $3,315 a ton before easing to $3,250 as of 1541 GMT.
European aluminium premiums, paid on top of LME prices for physical metal, have risen to $378 a ton for March and $428 for April , the highest levels in 3-1/2 years. Qatar accounted for less than 1% of the EU's primary aluminium imports in 2025, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.
Still, traders said the Qatar stoppage raised fears others in the region would also soon stop producing. Gulf Cooperation Council countries supplied 8% of the world's aluminium last year.
"The region is both a significant producer and exporter of aluminium by sea and also relies on imports of bauxite and alumina to keep smelters running," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Kpler's lead metals analyst Ben Ayre put the GCC's average monthly alumina imports at 680,000 tons. Only 61,000 tons of alumina on the water bound for the region's smelters are already in the Gulf, he said. Another 57,000 tons destined for Oman would not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed for shipping.
"There is an additional 377,000 tons en route and we have 160,000 tons lined up to depart Australia later in the month," Ayre said.
Meanwhile, almost 10% of aluminium inventories in the LME warehousing network , 45,325 tons, were ordered to be removed from storage in Port Klang, Malaysia, exchange data showed on Tuesday, suggesting traders are looking to cash in on supply shortages.
Middle East jitters weigh on most regional markets; energy shares cheer #Saudi | Reuters
Middle East jitters weigh on most regional markets; energy shares cheer Saudi | Reuters
Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on Tuesday, with the Qatar benchmark extending its decline after the country halted liquefied natural gas production amid an escalating air war in the region, while Egypt slipped for a third day.
Israel broadened its campaign with new strikes on Iran and Hezbollah, while Tehran launched missiles and drones toward Israel, several Gulf states and a British air base in Cyprus, raising concerns of a prolonged conflict.
Qatar's state-owned QatarEnergy, 82% of whose clients are in Asia, was set to declare force majeure on its LNG shipments after Iranian drone attacks on facilities in the sprawling Ras Laffan complex.
The country's benchmark index (.QSI), opens new tab trimmed early losses to close 0.7% lower, pressured by a 1.9% drop in Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the Gulf's biggest lender by assets.
Among gainers, petrochemical firm Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA), opens new tab advanced 2% and Qatar Fuel (QFLS.QA), opens new tab was up 1.9%.
Risk-off sentiment still dominates the Qatari exchange, though losses have eased compared with the sharper declines in earlier sessions. Any rebound will likely hinge on how regional tensions evolve and whether disruptions inside Qatar persist, said George Pavel General Manager at Naga.com Middle East.
Qatar condemned Iranian attacks on its territory and said, in a letter to the U.N. Secretary-General and the president of the Security Council on Monday, that it reserved the right to retaliate.
In Muscat, the index (.MSX30), opens new tab retreated 1.5% in broad declines, while the Kuwaiti index (.BKP), opens new tab reversed early losses to finish 0.9% higher.
Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds can play a pivotal role in supporting local equity markets by boosting liquidity and deploying additional capital to strengthen investor sentiment. This is an ideal moment to channel that support through fund-of-funds structures, said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose for a third straight day on Tuesday as threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said on Monday that the strait was closed and warned that Iran would set on fire any ship attempting to pass, Iranian media reported.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab rose 0.7%, lifted by a 0.9% rise in Rajhi Bank and a 1.9% climb in oil major Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, while petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010.SE), opens new tab, in which Aramco owns 70%, added 4.2%.
The Saudi energy index (.TENI), opens new tab advanced 1.8%.
Among individual stocks, Saudi budget carrier flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab extended declines to a third session, losing 2.8%, as air travel in the region was hit.
According to Hasn, the Saudi market is showing unexpected resilience despite the rapid and sudden spread of war, which is affecting various essential infrastructure sectors across the GCC.
"Investors appear to be banking on the hope that the conflict will not be prolonged, alongside expectations of extensive Saudi government support for the affected sectors."
Elsewhere, Bahrain's index (.BAX), opens new tab eased 0.3%.
Meanwhile, UAE's Securities and Commodities Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Tuesday, citing its supervisory and regulatory mandate over the country's capital markets. They were closed on March 2 too.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab extended its loss to a third consecutive session and slid 2%, with most stocks declining.
Egyptian equities extended their slide, with the market's ongoing correction deepened by regional instability. Sentiment remains weighed by risks to foreign direct investment, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, and gas supplies, said Pavel.
Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on Tuesday, with the Qatar benchmark extending its decline after the country halted liquefied natural gas production amid an escalating air war in the region, while Egypt slipped for a third day.
Israel broadened its campaign with new strikes on Iran and Hezbollah, while Tehran launched missiles and drones toward Israel, several Gulf states and a British air base in Cyprus, raising concerns of a prolonged conflict.
Qatar's state-owned QatarEnergy, 82% of whose clients are in Asia, was set to declare force majeure on its LNG shipments after Iranian drone attacks on facilities in the sprawling Ras Laffan complex.
The country's benchmark index (.QSI), opens new tab trimmed early losses to close 0.7% lower, pressured by a 1.9% drop in Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, the Gulf's biggest lender by assets.
Among gainers, petrochemical firm Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA), opens new tab advanced 2% and Qatar Fuel (QFLS.QA), opens new tab was up 1.9%.
Risk-off sentiment still dominates the Qatari exchange, though losses have eased compared with the sharper declines in earlier sessions. Any rebound will likely hinge on how regional tensions evolve and whether disruptions inside Qatar persist, said George Pavel General Manager at Naga.com Middle East.
Qatar condemned Iranian attacks on its territory and said, in a letter to the U.N. Secretary-General and the president of the Security Council on Monday, that it reserved the right to retaliate.
In Muscat, the index (.MSX30), opens new tab retreated 1.5% in broad declines, while the Kuwaiti index (.BKP), opens new tab reversed early losses to finish 0.9% higher.
Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds can play a pivotal role in supporting local equity markets by boosting liquidity and deploying additional capital to strengthen investor sentiment. This is an ideal moment to channel that support through fund-of-funds structures, said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose for a third straight day on Tuesday as threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said on Monday that the strait was closed and warned that Iran would set on fire any ship attempting to pass, Iranian media reported.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab rose 0.7%, lifted by a 0.9% rise in Rajhi Bank and a 1.9% climb in oil major Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, while petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010.SE), opens new tab, in which Aramco owns 70%, added 4.2%.
The Saudi energy index (.TENI), opens new tab advanced 1.8%.
Among individual stocks, Saudi budget carrier flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab extended declines to a third session, losing 2.8%, as air travel in the region was hit.
According to Hasn, the Saudi market is showing unexpected resilience despite the rapid and sudden spread of war, which is affecting various essential infrastructure sectors across the GCC.
"Investors appear to be banking on the hope that the conflict will not be prolonged, alongside expectations of extensive Saudi government support for the affected sectors."
Elsewhere, Bahrain's index (.BAX), opens new tab eased 0.3%.
Meanwhile, UAE's Securities and Commodities Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Tuesday, citing its supervisory and regulatory mandate over the country's capital markets. They were closed on March 2 too.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab extended its loss to a third consecutive session and slid 2%, with most stocks declining.
Egyptian equities extended their slide, with the market's ongoing correction deepened by regional instability. Sentiment remains weighed by risks to foreign direct investment, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, and gas supplies, said Pavel.
Monday, 2 March 2026
#Bahrain’s Alba to buy Europe’s biggest aluminium smelter
Bahrain’s Alba to buy Europe’s biggest aluminium smelter
Aluminium Bahrain has agreed to buy Europe’s biggest smelter in northern France, pledging to protect jobs at the site once owned by UK metals tycoon Sanjeev Gupta and signalling that it may allow the French government to take a stake.
The European metals sector has been roiled by cheaper Chinese competition and tariff disputes between Europe and the US, raising fears for its prospects even as the EU brings in a carbon border tax to help fend off competition.
Aluminium Bahrain, which already owns the world’s biggest smelter outside China and is majority owned by the Gulf island nation’s sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat, will buy Aluminium Dunkerque from American Industrial Partners, its owner since 2021.
The deal, terms of which have not been disclosed, is not finalised and could yet involve state-owned investment bank Bpifrance taking a stake, Alba and Aluminium Dunkerque said on Monday.
“Alba is open to opening up the capital to Bpifrance . . . to aid the long-term development of Aluminium Dunkerque,” the companies said in a joint statement, adding that talks were ongoing.
The French economy ministry said it would be “particularly vigilant over preserving jobs and strategic industrial capacities” at the site, which employs 750 people and produces 300,000 tonnes of aluminium a year.
People close to the deal said the priority after several years of uncertainty for the smelter was to find a long-term owner.
The site is “ideally positioned to make the most of structural supply deficits in Europe”, the companies said, meaning more European aluminium needs could be filled locally. Demand for “aluminium produced in a sustainable way” should also help the business, they added.
AIP acquired Aluminium Dunkerque from beleaguered metals magnate Sanjeev Gupta, and the private equity group cut debt and turned earnings around. Net profit rose from €49mn in 2021 to €186mn in 2024, according to the latest available accounts.
Pressure from Chinese competition and the huge investment costs needed to make steel and aluminium production cleaner in Europe have pushed some manufacturers in the region to the brink.
Governments are trying to mitigate any fallout for jobs and preserve local industries, all the more so amid an EU drive spearheaded by France to boost homegrown manufacturing in the face of Chinese imports.
The Aluminium Dunkerque takeover comes as unions fret over the future of ArcelorMittal’s activities in northern France, despite the company’s pledges to overhaul its steel site in Dunkirk with an electric arc furnace and invest in activities there.
The French government is also seeking damages from UK private equity firm Greybull, alleging it was responsible for more than 500 jobs lost at the Novasco steel site it formerly owned.
JPMorgan trims GCC non-oil growth forecasts on Middle East conflict | Reuters
JPMorgan trims GCC non-oil growth forecasts on Middle East conflict | Reuters
JPMorgan trimmed its outlook for non-oil growth for economies across the Gulf region this year following the widening Iran conflict over the weekend, warning that there was a risk of bigger revisions ahead.
The Wall Street bank cut non-oil growth by 0.3 percentage points across the bloc, with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates seeing the biggest reduction, at 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.
"Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes," JPMorgan analysts said.
The bank also said it no longer expected Turkey's central bank to cut interest rates at its March 12 meeting and revised its end-2026 policy rate forecast to 31% from 30%, while inflation was now expected to stand at 25% rather than 24% at that point.
"With Israel directly involved in the current conflict, it is probably fair to assume the BOI (Bank of Israel) will not cut in March either," JPMorgan said.
JPMorgan trimmed its outlook for non-oil growth for economies across the Gulf region this year following the widening Iran conflict over the weekend, warning that there was a risk of bigger revisions ahead.
The Wall Street bank cut non-oil growth by 0.3 percentage points across the bloc, with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates seeing the biggest reduction, at 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.
"Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes," JPMorgan analysts said.
The bank also said it no longer expected Turkey's central bank to cut interest rates at its March 12 meeting and revised its end-2026 policy rate forecast to 31% from 30%, while inflation was now expected to stand at 25% rather than 24% at that point.
"With Israel directly involved in the current conflict, it is probably fair to assume the BOI (Bank of Israel) will not cut in March either," JPMorgan said.
Most Gulf markets fall as Iran retaliates, #UAE suspends trading | Reuters
Most Gulf markets fall as Iran retaliates, UAE suspends trading | Reuters
Qatar's stock market plunged on Monday while the UAE suspended trading for two days, an early sign of economic disruption across the region as the Gulf grapples with Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Saturday - and Iranian retaliation - sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf, a strategic waterway and global trade hub.
Israel has continued airstrikes on Iran and expanded its assault to include attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Monday. Tehran said it had launched a new wave of missiles after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country's capital markets.
In Qatar, the benchmark index (.QSI), opens new tab - which was closed for a bank holiday on Sunday - dropped 4.3%, its biggest fall since March 2020. The country's markets are open from Sunday to Thursday. The Gulf's biggest lender by assets, Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, fell 4.8% - marking its biggest intraday fall since December 2022.
Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab declined 4.6%. HSBC cut its target price for the Sharia-compliant lender to 28.4 riyals ($7.79) from 29.4 riyals.
Elsewhere, maritime and logistics company Qatar Navigation (QNNC.QA), opens new tab tumbled 5.6% and LNG shipping company Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab retreated 6.7%.
Kuwait's Index (.BKP), opens new tab, which resumed trading after suspension on Sunday citing "exceptional circumstances", trimmed early losses to 1.9% from 3.6%, with National Bank Of Kuwait (NBKK.KW), opens new tab losing 3.7%.
Market sentiment is likely to remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments, with tensions driving near-term price moves. However, strong regional fundamentals and the relatively limited impact seen over the weekend may help cushion losses and cap downside, said Daniel Takieddine Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab finished flat in a choppy trade, a day after falling more than 2%.
Among fallers, budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab tumbled 6.4%, to become the heaviest faller on the index.
However, oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab advanced 1.5%, extending gains from the previous session, when it rose 3.4%.
Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months on Monday as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks in the Middle East, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.
Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, Reuters reported citing a source, as Israeli and U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation triggered precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.
Saudi stocks stabilized and may recover, supported by the energy sector as oil prices rise, with other sectors potentially remaining resilient. A sharper rebound - and spillover gains across the region - would be more likely if geopolitical risks ease quickly and the physical impact stays limited, said Takieddine.
Muscat's index (.MSX30), opens new tab climbed 1.1%, while Bahrain stocks (.BAX), opens new tab eased 0.2%.
The decline could persist if regional tensions intensify. However, because the sell-off is largely driven by geopolitical risk, markets could rebound quickly if tensions ease, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab fell 0.6%.
Qatar's stock market plunged on Monday while the UAE suspended trading for two days, an early sign of economic disruption across the region as the Gulf grapples with Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Saturday - and Iranian retaliation - sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf, a strategic waterway and global trade hub.
Israel has continued airstrikes on Iran and expanded its assault to include attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Monday. Tehran said it had launched a new wave of missiles after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country's capital markets.
In Qatar, the benchmark index (.QSI), opens new tab - which was closed for a bank holiday on Sunday - dropped 4.3%, its biggest fall since March 2020. The country's markets are open from Sunday to Thursday. The Gulf's biggest lender by assets, Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, fell 4.8% - marking its biggest intraday fall since December 2022.
Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab declined 4.6%. HSBC cut its target price for the Sharia-compliant lender to 28.4 riyals ($7.79) from 29.4 riyals.
Elsewhere, maritime and logistics company Qatar Navigation (QNNC.QA), opens new tab tumbled 5.6% and LNG shipping company Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab retreated 6.7%.
Kuwait's Index (.BKP), opens new tab, which resumed trading after suspension on Sunday citing "exceptional circumstances", trimmed early losses to 1.9% from 3.6%, with National Bank Of Kuwait (NBKK.KW), opens new tab losing 3.7%.
Market sentiment is likely to remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments, with tensions driving near-term price moves. However, strong regional fundamentals and the relatively limited impact seen over the weekend may help cushion losses and cap downside, said Daniel Takieddine Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab finished flat in a choppy trade, a day after falling more than 2%.
Among fallers, budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab tumbled 6.4%, to become the heaviest faller on the index.
However, oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab advanced 1.5%, extending gains from the previous session, when it rose 3.4%.
Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months on Monday as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks in the Middle East, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.
Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, Reuters reported citing a source, as Israeli and U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation triggered precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.
Saudi stocks stabilized and may recover, supported by the energy sector as oil prices rise, with other sectors potentially remaining resilient. A sharper rebound - and spillover gains across the region - would be more likely if geopolitical risks ease quickly and the physical impact stays limited, said Takieddine.
Muscat's index (.MSX30), opens new tab climbed 1.1%, while Bahrain stocks (.BAX), opens new tab eased 0.2%.
The decline could persist if regional tensions intensify. However, because the sell-off is largely driven by geopolitical risk, markets could rebound quickly if tensions ease, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab fell 0.6%.
Sunday, 1 March 2026
#AbuDhabi, #Dubai Markets Shut March 2-3 Following #Iran Strikes in Gulf - Bloomberg #UAE
Abu Dhabi, Dubai Markets Shut March 2-3 Following Iran Strikes in Gulf - Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates said its two key markets will close for two days of the week, avoiding a possible meltdown after the Gulf country was repeatedly hit as Iran retaliated against US-Israeli airstrikes.
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will be closed on March 2 and March 3, the UAE Capital Market Authority said in an emailed statement. “The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it added.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi have faced hundreds of missiles and drone attacks from Iran, which has been responding to an onslaught from the US and Israel, since Saturday morning. Most have been intercepted and there are few reports of casualties and damage to multiple areas across both cities. But the attacks are causing panic among residents and pose a huge threat to the UAE’s economy and status as a stable financial, logistics and tourism hub.
“US-Israel attacks on Iran threaten demand shocks for UAE property sales, risking absorption of 350,000 units in new supply, as well as 120 million footfalls into Dubai Mall and tourism into retail and hospitality,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Edmond Christou and Salome Skhirtladze wrote in a note. “UAE developers, such as Emaar, are vulnerable as are UAE banks with greater cyclical exposure.”
The UAE stock exchanges’ market capitalization stands at $1.1 trillion, making it the 19th largest in the world. It holds a 1.4% weight on MSCI Inc.’s emerging markets benchmark.
The market closures are unusual in the country. Outside regularly-scheduled holidays, UAE bourses are typically shuttered only during periods of national mourning, such as one that followed the death of President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in May 2022.
Still, it’s not uncommon for countries to shut their stock markets during times of uncertainty and turmoil. Among recent examples, Turkey suspended trading for a week after an earthquake in 2023 and the market soared upon reopening. Russia halted its market for about a month in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine. In Greece, the Athens Stock Exchange shut in 2015 for five weeks during the sovereign debt crisis and plunged when trading resumed.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, the Kuwait Capital Markets Authority said the country’s stock exchange will resume trading on March 2 after halting operations on Sunday.
The United Arab Emirates said its two key markets will close for two days of the week, avoiding a possible meltdown after the Gulf country was repeatedly hit as Iran retaliated against US-Israeli airstrikes.
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will be closed on March 2 and March 3, the UAE Capital Market Authority said in an emailed statement. “The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it added.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi have faced hundreds of missiles and drone attacks from Iran, which has been responding to an onslaught from the US and Israel, since Saturday morning. Most have been intercepted and there are few reports of casualties and damage to multiple areas across both cities. But the attacks are causing panic among residents and pose a huge threat to the UAE’s economy and status as a stable financial, logistics and tourism hub.
“US-Israel attacks on Iran threaten demand shocks for UAE property sales, risking absorption of 350,000 units in new supply, as well as 120 million footfalls into Dubai Mall and tourism into retail and hospitality,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Edmond Christou and Salome Skhirtladze wrote in a note. “UAE developers, such as Emaar, are vulnerable as are UAE banks with greater cyclical exposure.”
The UAE stock exchanges’ market capitalization stands at $1.1 trillion, making it the 19th largest in the world. It holds a 1.4% weight on MSCI Inc.’s emerging markets benchmark.
The market closures are unusual in the country. Outside regularly-scheduled holidays, UAE bourses are typically shuttered only during periods of national mourning, such as one that followed the death of President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in May 2022.
Still, it’s not uncommon for countries to shut their stock markets during times of uncertainty and turmoil. Among recent examples, Turkey suspended trading for a week after an earthquake in 2023 and the market soared upon reopening. Russia halted its market for about a month in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine. In Greece, the Athens Stock Exchange shut in 2015 for five weeks during the sovereign debt crisis and plunged when trading resumed.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, the Kuwait Capital Markets Authority said the country’s stock exchange will resume trading on March 2 after halting operations on Sunday.
#Iran Strikes: Oil Prices Will Get Nasty But Historic Shock Is Unlikely - Bloomberg
Iran Strikes: Oil Prices Will Get Nasty But Historic Shock Is Unlikely - Bloomberg
One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges. When the market reopens on Sunday night, oil prices are likely to jump 10%-15% as a result. But seen from a wider angle — looking broadly at the global economy — the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude does jump to, say, $80-plus a barrel.
First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first day of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available. The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.
Put the war and its likely geopolitical impact into historical context, and you’d be forgiven for being anxious. The Americans and Israelis launched coordinated air strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other senior officials. Iran responded with an unprecedented volley of missiles and drones, hitting Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Islamic Republic is fighting for its own survival. Cornered, Tehran can still weaponize oil as its last line of defense. It’s a huge risk.
With a different economic backdrop, this wouldn’t just be the mother of all oil shocks; it would be the rest of the family, too. It’s Hollywood stuff that only a few years ago would have led to predictions of oil zooming past its 2008 high on the way to $200 a barrel. That would have put the global economy on its knees, with runaway inflation likely forcing central bankers to hike interest rates and potentially crashing the financial markets.
For sure, the oil price is going to spike. But even the most bullish traders are talking about perhaps reaching $100, well below the $139 seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and 2008’s all-timer of $147.50. Using that wide-angle lens, the Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor, it may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession a la 1973-74 after the first oil crisis, or 1990-91 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The main reason for this is the one that will have emboldened Trump and his military strategists: The US shale revolution, which hands the US a much stronger hand in controlling prices.
And despite fears that Iran could set the Middle East’s energy industry on fire, targeting oilfields, refineries and export terminals, Tehran hasn’t yet turned oil into a weapon. Neither have Israel and the US targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure. The Iranian retaliation has been loud, but it appears largely ineffective so far. The US has said three service members were killed and five “seriously wounded.” The damage elsewhere in the Gulf is relatively minor.
For energy markets, the biggest worry is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water to the south of Iran that’s a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil. Shipping traffic has fallen sharply, although a handful of tankers passed through overnight without incident. Despite wild claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait.
Any stoppages are being self-imposed by the shipping and oil industries, in part responding to some insurers withdrawing coverage and in part at the request of the US Navy in the first hours of the conflict. There’s a bit of a buffer, as oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, and even Iran, increased loadings in the days running up to the attacks. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf were nearly 10% higher in February than the month before. The bulk of that has already left the region. Still, unless Washington quickly convinces shipping firms that the strait is safe, the self-imposed pause would turn into real disruption.
In a social-media video, President Donald Trump promised to “annihilate” the Iranian navy, an indication of the White House’s maritime priorities. The clock is ticking, and Hormuz will make or break this crisis. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, put it well by saying, “Markets had been well supplied to date.” Those words “to date” are key. If oil prices get ugly, Trump may create an off-ramp for himself. Having killed Khamenei, he can claim “mission accomplished” and move on.
Thankfully, the physical oil market entered the crisis weak in terms of pricing pressure. For months supply has run ahead of demand, allowing inventories to slowly refill, albeit from a low level. Now the industry is heading into a couple of months of weak demand as the northern hemisphere emerges from winter.
For the last two years, China, the biggest buyer of Middle Eastern crude, has been building a massive strategic petroleum reserve, which could limit the wider market disruption. Iranian oil is sold almost exclusively to Chinese refineries. If needed, Western nations can tap their reserves as well.
And while the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, snapping up oil in the expectation of rising prices. A year ago, Israel and America’s 12-Day War on Iran wrongfooted many traders, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude prices to leap. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years. As such, oil traders are better prepared to digest the crisis.
The OPEC+ oil cartel can help cushion some of the impact, but more with words than barrels. On Sunday, the group announced a production increase for April, and hinted more to come. Still, unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, all the incremental barrels will be trapped. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that let them bypass the strait, partly anyway. If the conflict intensifies, they will highlight that alternative.
One of the world’s chief oil bulls, of course, resides in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin will benefit from the war via loftier oil prices and greater demand for his own sanctioned crude. Barely hiding his glee, Russia envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted on social media on Saturday: “$100+ a barrel soon.” He may be a tad too bullish, but directionally he’s not wrong. Perhaps more important, Russia may find it easier to sell in the black market the millions of barrels of oil it has sitting in storage. If the White House turns a blind eye, India may buy them. That is hardly ideal for anyone trying to counter Putin’s belligerence, but it would ease any global crude shortage linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges. When the market reopens on Sunday night, oil prices are likely to jump 10%-15% as a result. But seen from a wider angle — looking broadly at the global economy — the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude does jump to, say, $80-plus a barrel.
First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first day of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available. The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.
Put the war and its likely geopolitical impact into historical context, and you’d be forgiven for being anxious. The Americans and Israelis launched coordinated air strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other senior officials. Iran responded with an unprecedented volley of missiles and drones, hitting Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Islamic Republic is fighting for its own survival. Cornered, Tehran can still weaponize oil as its last line of defense. It’s a huge risk.
With a different economic backdrop, this wouldn’t just be the mother of all oil shocks; it would be the rest of the family, too. It’s Hollywood stuff that only a few years ago would have led to predictions of oil zooming past its 2008 high on the way to $200 a barrel. That would have put the global economy on its knees, with runaway inflation likely forcing central bankers to hike interest rates and potentially crashing the financial markets.
For sure, the oil price is going to spike. But even the most bullish traders are talking about perhaps reaching $100, well below the $139 seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and 2008’s all-timer of $147.50. Using that wide-angle lens, the Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor, it may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession a la 1973-74 after the first oil crisis, or 1990-91 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The main reason for this is the one that will have emboldened Trump and his military strategists: The US shale revolution, which hands the US a much stronger hand in controlling prices.
And despite fears that Iran could set the Middle East’s energy industry on fire, targeting oilfields, refineries and export terminals, Tehran hasn’t yet turned oil into a weapon. Neither have Israel and the US targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure. The Iranian retaliation has been loud, but it appears largely ineffective so far. The US has said three service members were killed and five “seriously wounded.” The damage elsewhere in the Gulf is relatively minor.
For energy markets, the biggest worry is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water to the south of Iran that’s a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil. Shipping traffic has fallen sharply, although a handful of tankers passed through overnight without incident. Despite wild claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait.
Any stoppages are being self-imposed by the shipping and oil industries, in part responding to some insurers withdrawing coverage and in part at the request of the US Navy in the first hours of the conflict. There’s a bit of a buffer, as oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, and even Iran, increased loadings in the days running up to the attacks. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf were nearly 10% higher in February than the month before. The bulk of that has already left the region. Still, unless Washington quickly convinces shipping firms that the strait is safe, the self-imposed pause would turn into real disruption.
In a social-media video, President Donald Trump promised to “annihilate” the Iranian navy, an indication of the White House’s maritime priorities. The clock is ticking, and Hormuz will make or break this crisis. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, put it well by saying, “Markets had been well supplied to date.” Those words “to date” are key. If oil prices get ugly, Trump may create an off-ramp for himself. Having killed Khamenei, he can claim “mission accomplished” and move on.
Thankfully, the physical oil market entered the crisis weak in terms of pricing pressure. For months supply has run ahead of demand, allowing inventories to slowly refill, albeit from a low level. Now the industry is heading into a couple of months of weak demand as the northern hemisphere emerges from winter.
For the last two years, China, the biggest buyer of Middle Eastern crude, has been building a massive strategic petroleum reserve, which could limit the wider market disruption. Iranian oil is sold almost exclusively to Chinese refineries. If needed, Western nations can tap their reserves as well.
And while the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, snapping up oil in the expectation of rising prices. A year ago, Israel and America’s 12-Day War on Iran wrongfooted many traders, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude prices to leap. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years. As such, oil traders are better prepared to digest the crisis.
The OPEC+ oil cartel can help cushion some of the impact, but more with words than barrels. On Sunday, the group announced a production increase for April, and hinted more to come. Still, unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, all the incremental barrels will be trapped. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that let them bypass the strait, partly anyway. If the conflict intensifies, they will highlight that alternative.
One of the world’s chief oil bulls, of course, resides in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin will benefit from the war via loftier oil prices and greater demand for his own sanctioned crude. Barely hiding his glee, Russia envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted on social media on Saturday: “$100+ a barrel soon.” He may be a tad too bullish, but directionally he’s not wrong. Perhaps more important, Russia may find it easier to sell in the black market the millions of barrels of oil it has sitting in storage. If the White House turns a blind eye, India may buy them. That is hardly ideal for anyone trying to counter Putin’s belligerence, but it would ease any global crude shortage linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
#Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran | Reuters
Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran | Reuters
Physical gold flows to and from Dubai's bullion trading hub will be severely curbed in coming days as airlines cancel flights due to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, three metals industry sources said.
Dubai's trading hub is a major gold supplier to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India, a major consumer. Gold travels by plane due to security and insurance issues stemming from its value-to-weight ratio.
"It looks like most if not all airlines have cancelled their flights, so not going to be any gold moving for a couple of days," one of the sources said.
The impact on the global supply will depend on the length of disruption, the sources said. They declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the press.
Spot gold prices closed on Friday up 1.7% at $5,277 per troy ounce, their highest since January 30, with many analysts expecting safe-haven inflows into bullion once the market opens on Monday. Gold's record high was $5,594.82 on January 29.
The market on Monday is likely to be dominated by financial flows on markets in Shanghai, London and New York, another source said.
"The major locations - China, India, New York, London and Zurich - are still okay," a precious metals trader said.
Physical gold flows to and from Dubai's bullion trading hub will be severely curbed in coming days as airlines cancel flights due to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, three metals industry sources said.
Dubai's trading hub is a major gold supplier to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India, a major consumer. Gold travels by plane due to security and insurance issues stemming from its value-to-weight ratio.
"It looks like most if not all airlines have cancelled their flights, so not going to be any gold moving for a couple of days," one of the sources said.
The impact on the global supply will depend on the length of disruption, the sources said. They declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the press.
Spot gold prices closed on Friday up 1.7% at $5,277 per troy ounce, their highest since January 30, with many analysts expecting safe-haven inflows into bullion once the market opens on Monday. Gold's record high was $5,594.82 on January 29.
The market on Monday is likely to be dominated by financial flows on markets in Shanghai, London and New York, another source said.
"The major locations - China, India, New York, London and Zurich - are still okay," a precious metals trader said.
Gulf stocks slide, #Kuwait suspends trading as Iran responds to US, Israeli attacks | Reuters
Gulf stocks slide, Kuwait suspends trading as Iran responds to US, Israeli attacks | Reuters
Most Gulf equities fell on Sunday and Boursa Kuwait suspended trading after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted retaliatory attacks across nearby U.S. targets in Gulf cities, fanning fears of prolonged regional instability.
In a rare move, Boursa Kuwait (.BKP), opens new tab suspended trade until further notice citing the "exceptional circumstances" the country is facing.
In Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest stock market, the benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab pared its losses to close 2.2% lower compared with a 4.6% drop early in the session.
Decliners included Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab at 3% and budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab at 6.9%, its biggest intraday fall since its IPO in June last year.
Elsewhere, Jabal Omar Development (4250.SE), opens new tab - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - was down 2.6%. Saudi shipping firm Bahri (4030.SE), opens new tab declined 4.2%.
Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, however, advanced 3.4%, registering its biggest intraday gain in over four months amid expectations of rising oil prices.
The kingdom on Saturday said Iran had attacked Riyadh and the country's eastern region.
"While higher oil prices provide a near-term fiscal cushion for regional governments, the more material concern is the risk of affected shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which would have broader implications for energy flows and trade."
Gulf stock markets face heightened correction risk and volatility as geopolitical tension drives a risk-off mood, pressuring prices and expectations, said XTB MENA senior market analyst Hani Abuagla.
Investors will track regional developments and any further escalation or real-economy damage could deepen the selloff, he said.
The Muscat stock index (.MSX30), opens new tab trimmed its decline to 1.4% after sliding more than 3% in a broad-based selloff.
Bahrain's stock index (.BAX), opens new tab retreated 1%, while Qatar's stock exchange was closed for a bank holiday.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab settled 2.5% down, after it plunged 5.5% in early trade.
Disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk, weighing on sentiment and disrupting normal operations across a range of sectors, Abuagla said.
Witnesses reported blasts in the Dubai area and over Doha for a second day on Sunday, as Iran's retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forced major regional airports including Dubai to shut, in one of the biggest disruptions to global aviation in years.
Trading in Middle East markets is an early indicator of how investors measure any impact on assets from oil to safe-haven currencies and gold. Analysts at Barclays raised their Brent crude forecast to about $100 a barrel on Saturday from an earlier estimate of $80.
Trading in Middle East markets is an early indicator of how investors measure any impact on assets from oil to safe-haven currencies and gold. Analysts at Barclays raised their Brent crude forecast to about $100 a barrel on Saturday from an earlier estimate of $80.
In a rare move, Boursa Kuwait (.BKP), opens new tab suspended trade until further notice citing the "exceptional circumstances" the country is facing.
In Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest stock market, the benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab pared its losses to close 2.2% lower compared with a 4.6% drop early in the session.
Decliners included Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab at 3% and budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab at 6.9%, its biggest intraday fall since its IPO in June last year.
Elsewhere, Jabal Omar Development (4250.SE), opens new tab - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - was down 2.6%. Saudi shipping firm Bahri (4030.SE), opens new tab declined 4.2%.
Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, however, advanced 3.4%, registering its biggest intraday gain in over four months amid expectations of rising oil prices.
The kingdom on Saturday said Iran had attacked Riyadh and the country's eastern region.
"GCC markets are likely to remain under pressure as investors price in a higher and potentially prolonged geopolitical risk premium following the recent escalation in the region," said Tahir Abbas, head of research at Oman's Ubhar Capital.
"While higher oil prices provide a near-term fiscal cushion for regional governments, the more material concern is the risk of affected shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which would have broader implications for energy flows and trade."
Gulf stock markets face heightened correction risk and volatility as geopolitical tension drives a risk-off mood, pressuring prices and expectations, said XTB MENA senior market analyst Hani Abuagla.
Investors will track regional developments and any further escalation or real-economy damage could deepen the selloff, he said.
The Muscat stock index (.MSX30), opens new tab trimmed its decline to 1.4% after sliding more than 3% in a broad-based selloff.
Bahrain's stock index (.BAX), opens new tab retreated 1%, while Qatar's stock exchange was closed for a bank holiday.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab settled 2.5% down, after it plunged 5.5% in early trade.
Disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk, weighing on sentiment and disrupting normal operations across a range of sectors, Abuagla said.
Saturday, 28 February 2026
#Iran Strikes: What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Attacks Tehran - Bloomberg
Iran Strikes: What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Attacks Tehran - Bloomberg
President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran creates new risks for a significant chunk of the world’s oil supply.
The Islamic Republic itself pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day, or 3% of global output, making it the fourth-largest producer in OPEC. But the nation wields far greater influence over the world’s energy supplies because of its strategic location.
Iran sits on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for about a fifth of the world’s crude from key suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. While the waterway remains open, some oil tankers were avoiding sailing through following the attacks and ships were piling up either side of the entrance, tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Oil markets are closed for the weekend, and there was no initial information on whether the attacks on Iran and the country’s retaliatory strikes across the region on Saturday targeted any energy assets.
Here are the pressure points to watch in oil as events unfold.
Iran’s Production
Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day, up from less than 2 million barrels a day in 2020 despite continued international sanctions. The country has become more adept at skirting these restrictions, sending about 90% of its exports to China.
The largest oil deposits are Ahvaz and Marun and the West Karun cluster, all in Khuzestan province.
Iran’s main refinery, built at Abadan in 1912, can process more than 500,000 barrels a day. Other key plants include the Bandar Abbas and Persian Gulf Star refineries, which handle crude and condensate, a type of ultra-light oil that’s abundant in Iran. The country’s capital Tehran has its own refinery.
For Iran’s overseas shipments, the Kharg Island terminal in the northern Persian Gulf is the main logistical hub. There was an explosion in the island Saturday, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, which didn’t provide more details or make any reference to the oil terminal.
Kharg Island has numerous loading berths, jetties, remote mooring points and tens of millions of barrels of crude storage capacity. The facilities have handled export volumes exceeding 2 million barrels a day in recent years.
US sanctions discourage most potential buyers of Iran’s crude, but private Chinese refiners have remained willing customers, provided they get steep discounts. Tehran relies for its international shipments on a fleet of aging tankers that mostly sail with their transponders deactivated to avoid detection.
Earlier this month, Iran was rapidly filling tankers at Kharg Island, probably in an effort to get as much crude on the water and move vessels out of harm’s way in case the facility was attacked. It was a move similar to last June ahead of Israeli and US attacks.
Any strike on Kharg Island would be a desperate blow for the country’s economy.
Iran’s main natural gas fields are further to the south along the Persian Gulf coast. Facilities at Assaluyeh and Bandar Abbas process, transport and ship gas and condensate for domestic use in power generation, heating, petrochemicals and other industries.
The area is the main point for Iran’s condensate exports. During the June war, an attack on a local gas plant sparked jitters among traders, but didn’t cause a lasting spike in oil prices because it didn’t affect any export facilities.
Regional Dangers
Iran’s supreme leader warned on Feb. 1 of a “regional war” if his country was attacked by the US. Tehran has claimed that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is within its power.
It would be an extreme step that the country has never taken, but remains a nightmare scenario for global markets.
Hormuz is the chokepoint for bulk of the Persian Gulf’s exports of crude, and also refined fuels like diesel and jet fuel. Qatar, one of world’s biggest liquefied natural gas exporters, also relies on the strait. At least three gas tankers going to or from Qatar had paused voyages following the latest attacks in the region, according to ship-tracking data.
While OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have some ability to reroute their shipments via pipelines that avoid Hormuz, a closing the strait would still cause a massive disruption to exports and spike crude prices.
There were signs of other Gulf producers also accelerating shipments in February. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments averaged about 7.3 million barrels a day in the first 24 days of the month, the most in almost three years. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were set to climb almost 600,000 barrels a day from the same period in January, according to data from Vortexa Ltd.
In the past, Tehran has made retaliatory strikes on some of its neighbors’ energy assets. In 2019, Saudi Arabia blamed Tehran for a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility that halted production equivalent to about 7% of global crude supply.
Many observers say it’s improbable that Iran could keep Hormuz closed for long, making lower-impact actions like harassment of shipping more likely.
During last year’s war with Israel and the US, nearly 1,000 vessels a day were having their GPS signals jammed near Iran’s coast, contributing to one tanker collision. Sea mines are another long-threatened option for deterring shipping.
Market Reactions
Oil surged the most in more than three years during the June war, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel in London. However, the gains quickly faded once it became clear that key regional oil infrastructure hadn’t been damaged.
Since then, concerns about an oversupply have dominated global markets, with crude in London ending 2025 about 18% lower than where it started.
Despite those fears of a glut, prices have surged 19% this year, partly due to fears of US strikes on Iran.
With the main oil futures closed for the weekend, there’s limited insight into how traders are reacting to the latest attacks. However, a retail trading product, run by IG Group Ltd., was pricing West Texas Intermediate as high as $75.33, a gain of as much as 12% from Friday’s close.
Friday, 27 February 2026
#SaudiArabia Investors Ramped Up US Stock Trading as Home Market Fell - Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia Investors Ramped Up US Stock Trading as Home Market Fell - Bloomberg
Saudi Arabian investors sharply increased their trading in US equities in 2025, redirecting capital away from a domestic market that ranked among the world’s worst performers.
Trading by Saudi financial institutions in US stocks rose to about 254 billion riyals ($68 billion) in the fourth quarter, more than double the level a year earlier, according to data from the Capital Market Authority. US equities accounted for nearly all trading conducted outside the kingdom in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, activity on the Saudi exchange contracted. Total domestic trading fell from more than 1.1 trillion riyals in early 2024 to about 574 billion riyals by the end of 2025.
The divergence reflects starkly different market trajectories. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell 9% in the fourth quarter, taking its annual decline to 13% amid oil-price volatility, fiscal pressures and regional tensions. US markets kept rising: The S&P 500 index gained more than 16% for the year, driven largely by tech stocks and investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Although the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has been reducing its holdings of US-listed equities, it has still funneled significant capital into the country. Notable Public Investment Fund deals include last year’s $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts Inc. and a recent $3 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI via a subsidiary.
Saudi Arabia’s IPO market — once a bright spot — has also cooled, with a string of weak debuts and a slow start to new share sales this year. Meanwhile, companies in the US are preparing a new wave of large listings, including SpaceX, which could unseat Saudi Aramco as the world’s largest IPO, and Anthropic PBC and OpenAI Inc.
Even as local investors pull back from domestic equities, regulators have stepped up efforts to attract foreign capital. Authorities recently opened the market to a broader range of international investors and are considering rule changes that would allow majority foreign ownership of Saudi-listed companies, a move analysts say could unlock billions of dollars in passive inflows.
Regulators have also encouraged companies to allocate larger portions of IPOs to retail investors to boost local participation. Some banks have pushed back, arguing the policy risks forcing shares onto a segment where demand remains uneven while limiting allocations to foreign institutions.
Saudi Arabian investors sharply increased their trading in US equities in 2025, redirecting capital away from a domestic market that ranked among the world’s worst performers.
Trading by Saudi financial institutions in US stocks rose to about 254 billion riyals ($68 billion) in the fourth quarter, more than double the level a year earlier, according to data from the Capital Market Authority. US equities accounted for nearly all trading conducted outside the kingdom in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, activity on the Saudi exchange contracted. Total domestic trading fell from more than 1.1 trillion riyals in early 2024 to about 574 billion riyals by the end of 2025.
The divergence reflects starkly different market trajectories. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell 9% in the fourth quarter, taking its annual decline to 13% amid oil-price volatility, fiscal pressures and regional tensions. US markets kept rising: The S&P 500 index gained more than 16% for the year, driven largely by tech stocks and investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Although the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has been reducing its holdings of US-listed equities, it has still funneled significant capital into the country. Notable Public Investment Fund deals include last year’s $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts Inc. and a recent $3 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI via a subsidiary.
Saudi Arabia’s IPO market — once a bright spot — has also cooled, with a string of weak debuts and a slow start to new share sales this year. Meanwhile, companies in the US are preparing a new wave of large listings, including SpaceX, which could unseat Saudi Aramco as the world’s largest IPO, and Anthropic PBC and OpenAI Inc.
Even as local investors pull back from domestic equities, regulators have stepped up efforts to attract foreign capital. Authorities recently opened the market to a broader range of international investors and are considering rule changes that would allow majority foreign ownership of Saudi-listed companies, a move analysts say could unlock billions of dollars in passive inflows.
Regulators have also encouraged companies to allocate larger portions of IPOs to retail investors to boost local participation. Some banks have pushed back, arguing the policy risks forcing shares onto a segment where demand remains uneven while limiting allocations to foreign institutions.
#UAE stocks retreat on US-Iran impasse; oil prices jump | Reuters
UAE stocks retreat on US-Iran impasse; oil prices jump | Reuters
Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates declined on Friday, as investors took a cautious stance after talks between the U.S. and Iran ended in Geneva with no breakthroughs that could avert potential U.S. strikes amid a massive military buildup.
The two sides plan to resume negotiations after consultations in their countries' capitals, with technical-level discussions scheduled to take place next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to the biggest events in global sport. Sign up here.
Dubai's main market (.DFMGI), opens new tab plunged 1.8%, its second week of decline, dragged down by a 4.1% decrease in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab, its steepest intraday fall in nearly 10 months.
Top lenders Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab and Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), opens new tab dropped 5.2% and 2.4% respectively in an index-wide decline.
Separately, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise said on Thursday it will buy aircraft leasing firm Macquarie AirFinance for an enterprise value of about $7 billion, creating a combined fleet of 1,029 planes and one of the world's biggest lessors.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab tumbled 1.3%, led by a 2.4% dip in UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab, while Americana Restaurants International, which operates U.S. fast food brands in the Middle East, slid 5.6%.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi on Thursday raised a total of $3 billion from a two-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated bond sale, fixed income news service IFR reported, in its first issuance this year.
However, oil prices - a key contributor to Gulf's economies - jumped on Friday as uncertainty surrounding U.S. and Iran negotiations pushed prices higher.
Brent crude was up 1.96% to $72.14 a barrel by 1134 GMT.
Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates declined on Friday, as investors took a cautious stance after talks between the U.S. and Iran ended in Geneva with no breakthroughs that could avert potential U.S. strikes amid a massive military buildup.
The two sides plan to resume negotiations after consultations in their countries' capitals, with technical-level discussions scheduled to take place next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to the biggest events in global sport. Sign up here.
Dubai's main market (.DFMGI), opens new tab plunged 1.8%, its second week of decline, dragged down by a 4.1% decrease in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab, its steepest intraday fall in nearly 10 months.
Top lenders Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab and Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), opens new tab dropped 5.2% and 2.4% respectively in an index-wide decline.
Separately, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise said on Thursday it will buy aircraft leasing firm Macquarie AirFinance for an enterprise value of about $7 billion, creating a combined fleet of 1,029 planes and one of the world's biggest lessors.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab tumbled 1.3%, led by a 2.4% dip in UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab, while Americana Restaurants International, which operates U.S. fast food brands in the Middle East, slid 5.6%.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi on Thursday raised a total of $3 billion from a two-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated bond sale, fixed income news service IFR reported, in its first issuance this year.
However, oil prices - a key contributor to Gulf's economies - jumped on Friday as uncertainty surrounding U.S. and Iran negotiations pushed prices higher.
Brent crude was up 1.96% to $72.14 a barrel by 1134 GMT.
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