ENERGY
Oil prices determine the pace of prosperity. The oil-price boom 2002-2008 allowed countries to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure and diversification. They also amassed billions in sovereign wealth funds, which has lifted their profile on the international stage. As oil prices recede, so does the pace of growth and wealth accumulation, although most states possess enough stored wealth to cushion the downturn.
RISK: Prolonged downturn topples GCC states’ ambitious plans.
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