Place your bets now. Eurasia Group reckons that the violence in Libya will rage for the next 4-6 months at least as Gaddafi launches a desperate attempt to maintain his grip on power. This will terrorize most parts of the country, fragmenting the political opposition to the Colonel's rule and dividing tribal groups. And even if Gaddafi was booted out of power soon, the resumption of oil output would take a long while.
Here's why the Libyan leader can stay in power for up to 6 months, according to Mohammed El-Katiri, Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group:
He remains in control of abundant financial resources that allow him to pay for special forces and mercenaries. He is also supported by his sons that who have their own political power aspirations and private paramilitary forces and appear committed to fight to preserve their leadership claims.
No comments:
Post a Comment