Credit Suisse Sees Oil Prices Falling on Saudi Arabia’s Supply - Businessweek

Global oil prices will probably decline to below $100 a barrel as Saudi Arabia releases supply from its reserves and demand drops from elevated December levels, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

The rise in prices is “manageable” and central banks are unlikely to raise interest rates “on account of oil alone,” Andrew Garthwaite, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a note dated today. Still, any rally driving Brent crude 100 percent higher year-on-year to between $140 and $155 a barrel may be a “trigger point” that has historically led to equities “correcting” by 34 percent, he wrote.

Countries that are significant energy importers and where energy accounts for a large part of the consumer price index such as India, Thailand, the Philippines, Czech Republic and Poland are among the potential losers, according to the report.