Middle East: haves and have-nots | beyondbrics – FT.com

Middle Eastern economies have always run at two different speeds – oil versus no oil, the haves versus the have-nots – but the divergence is widening as high oil prices are boosting the Gulf but kicking Levantine and north African nations while they’re down.

For 2011, GCC oil exporters will see real GDP growth of 6.5 per cent but oil importers will see a contraction of 0.5 per cent, according to recent research by the Institute for International Finance.

Fiscal data tell a similar story. The GCC’s consolidated fiscal surplus will rise from 7.9 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 13.2 per cent in 2011, while oil importers will see deficits grow from 4.3 per cent of GDP to 5.7 per cent.