No recession in Egypt this year or Bahrain, just a reduction in growth, that is what the latest IMF regional forecasts would have us believe. The Oil States get a boost from higher oil prices and production rates, apart from Libya of course, but the growth forecast is not as high as you might expect.
Perhaps the IMF is trying to pour oil on troubled water, as if its forecasts can have some miraculous effect. But if they do have any sway with business and investors these misleading forecasts will simply misallocate capital and become yet another macroeconomic problem for the region.
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