IM
ECONOMIC FORECAST
| ||||||
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
| |||
Old
|
New
|
Old
|
New
| |||
Global
|
-0.7
|
5.1
|
3.9
|
4.2
|
3.8
|
4.5
|
G10
|
-3.6
|
2.6
|
1.5
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
-2.6
|
3
|
1.8
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
3
| |
Euro Area
|
-4.1
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
2
|
0.5
|
1.2
|
-6.3
|
4
|
-0.6
|
-1.2
|
1.3
|
2.9
| |
-4.9
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.8
| |
EM
|
2.6
|
7.8
|
6.4
|
6.6
|
6.1
|
6.7
|
9.2
|
10.3
|
9
|
9
|
8.7
|
9
| |
7.2
|
9
|
7.3
|
7.3
|
7.4
|
7.8
| |
-7.8
|
4
|
4.7
|
5
|
5.2
|
5.5
| |
-0.2
|
7.5
|
3.7
|
4
|
3.5
|
4.6
| |
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
| ||||||
Morgan Stanley just downgraded the world's economic outlook, and blames U.S. and European leaders for the mess. In its grim prognosis of the global economy, Morgan Stanley completely ignores the Middle East countries.
So we don't know how MS really feels about the outlook of the regional economies, but here is a clue: the Middle East oil producers' biggest clients - the United States, Europe and even the hot emerging markets - have seen growth forecasts slashed by the bank.
"We cut our global GDP growth forecasts to 3.9% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, from 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively," notes Joachim Fels, head of Morgan Stanley's global economics research team. "DM (developed markets) growth looks set to average only 1.5% this year and next (down from 1.9% and 2.4% previously), making the BBB recovery even more bumpy, below-par and brittle."
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