"If recent examples of revolution and politcal transition are anything to go by, Ukraine is in for a nasty shock in terms of economic growth.
Following a year of upheaval, GDP growth rates can weaken by between 4 to 8 percentage points the following year, according to a Capital Economics note on Thursday.
Comparing the GDP performance of Egypt and Tunisia in 2011, Ukraine in 2004 and Georgia in 2003, William Jackson of Capital notes that what the countries “all have in common is that growth slowed substantially” in the quarters following a political transition. Here’s the chart:
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| Source: Capital Economics |
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