"Just as things were starting to look up for many economies in central and eastern Europe, along comes the crisis in Ukraine. How severe will the impact be?
The answer, of course, depends on how the crisis develops. Says Simon Quijano-Evans of Commerzbank: “If we’re talking about the secession of any region of Ukraine, then we have to go on to the next step, which is about relations breaking down not between Russia and CEE but between Russia and the EU. The only way the EU and the US can react is through economic and financial sanctions.”
Even if the situation remains more or less contained, the potential for damage is clear. Poland, which turned in an unexpectedly strong performance last year, is among the countries whose trade is most exposed to disruption in the CIS former Soviet states.
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| Source: Eurostat, Commerzbank |
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