Hello 2015: having failed in Ukraine, Russia will turn inwards | beyondbrics

Hello 2015: having failed in Ukraine, Russia will turn inwards | beyondbrics:



"This time last year I was asked to contribute an article for beyondbrics on the outlook for 2014, and I chose Ukraine (see Hello 2014: Ukraine’s crisis may run and run, December 20, 2014). That post turned out to be prescient, although even I could never have imagined the remarkable turn of events in that country this year. 




For 2015 I think Ukraine will remain in the headlines, but its future is likely at least partially to be determined by events in its eastern neighbour, Russia. The new reform administration in Kiev can succeed, if Moscow gives it some breathing space and scales back its own direct intervention in Ukraine.



Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, faces some stark choices. His policy towards Ukraine has had decidedly mixed results. He has annexed Crimea, but he already had de facto control over the peninsula, through the long-running Black Sea Fleet agreement and the stationing of tens of thousands of Russian servicemen."



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