Trade War: Recession Within a Year if It Gets Worse - Bloomberg:
Investors may still be underestimating the full risk to the global economy from a trade war, even after U.S. stocks capped the worst month of the year.
A recession could begin in as soon as nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates with its own countermeasures, according to Chetan Ahya, chief economist and global head of economics at Morgan Stanley.
The rift between the Trump administration and China has escalated as each side blames the other for the breakdown in talks. Over the weekend, Trump celebrated his trade policies and the recent move to impose tariffs on Mexican goods in response to illegal immigration.
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