Gulf’s long-serving ruler is ailing at a bad time – Breakingviews:
Qaboos bin Said has picked an unfortunate time to get seriously ill. The health of the 79-year-old sultan of Oman, in power for the last 50 years and one of only three incumbents in the last century, was the subject of intense speculation over recent weeks. Now that U.S. President Donald Trump has started 2020 by dramatically escalating his stand off with Iran, Qaboos’ passing would remove a supporting strut for the Middle East’s already fragile stability.
The sultan’s iconic status in the region is partly down to his longevity. That has been helped by economic growth that has boosted real GDP per capita by 70% since he took over, according to World Bank data. A striking feature of his reign has been a capacity to stay on cordial terms with counterparties as antagonistic as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. Despite a 2017 blockade of Qatar by Saudi, the United Arab Emirates and other allies, Oman has continued to trade with Doha. When Washington and Tehran were negotiating their now-defunct nuclear deal, Oman also played an important intermediary role.
As and when Qaboos passes away, his stature means Muscat street markets will continue to do a brisk trade in brightly coloured T-shirts bearing his likeness. But ever since Trump authorised a New Year’s drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, the region has been on edge. If the sultan were to die right now, his realm might switch from being a salver of tensions to an amplifier.
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