A $30 Oil Price Is the Real Virus Threat to OPEC - Bloomberg:
It’s finally upon us. The week when ministers from the oil producing countries of OPEC and their allies meet to decide on the future of their latest round of output cuts. Having failed to persuade Russia to bring the meeting forward, Saudi Arabia will now hope to convince its biggest non-OPEC ally of the need to make deeper cuts in the face of a demand slump triggered by the Covid-19 virus. Success is not a foregone conclusion and failure will be costly.
The looming pandemic has already made its mark on oil markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now firmly below $50 a barrel and global benchmark Brent briefly followed it on Friday. That is uncomfortable territory for producers everywhere and, without a clear indication of deeper output cuts from this week’s meetings, prices will fall further.
As the virus spreads, locking down Italy’s industrial heartland and prompting Switzerland to ban large gatherings, producers appear to be clinging to overly optimistic demand assessments. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, speaking at a conference in Saudi Arabia last week, said that in spite of the new coronavirus, the world’s “thirst for energy will continue to grow.” While that may be true for energy as a whole, it may not be for oil demand this year if there isn’t a quick rebound.
It’s finally upon us. The week when ministers from the oil producing countries of OPEC and their allies meet to decide on the future of their latest round of output cuts. Having failed to persuade Russia to bring the meeting forward, Saudi Arabia will now hope to convince its biggest non-OPEC ally of the need to make deeper cuts in the face of a demand slump triggered by the Covid-19 virus. Success is not a foregone conclusion and failure will be costly.
The looming pandemic has already made its mark on oil markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now firmly below $50 a barrel and global benchmark Brent briefly followed it on Friday. That is uncomfortable territory for producers everywhere and, without a clear indication of deeper output cuts from this week’s meetings, prices will fall further.
As the virus spreads, locking down Italy’s industrial heartland and prompting Switzerland to ban large gatherings, producers appear to be clinging to overly optimistic demand assessments. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, speaking at a conference in Saudi Arabia last week, said that in spite of the new coronavirus, the world’s “thirst for energy will continue to grow.” While that may be true for energy as a whole, it may not be for oil demand this year if there isn’t a quick rebound.
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