Saudi Arabia’s warning to OPEC+ cheaters and short-sellers alike helped oil prices stage their biggest weekly rally since June, despite a grim start to the week as industry heavyweights painted a troubling demand picture for the petroleum complex.
Futures in New York rose 10% this week following a show of determination by Saudi Arabia, the most influential nation in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to defend the market on Thursday. The Saudis hinted they’re prepared for new production cuts, and lambasted OPEC+ members that have cheated on production quotas.
Prices briefly fell as much as 1.6% on Friday following an announcement from Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar that he will allow crude production and exports to resume. But while Haftar reached the agreement with the country’s deputy premier, it was unclear whether the deal that excluded the National Oil Co. would actually restart exports.
“Depending on Libyan oil supply coming online seems like it’s a pretty risky bet,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, so traders likely aren’t willing to make sizable wagers on it heading into the weekend. Saudi Arabia’s unambiguous comments on Thursday, though, give market participants the confidence they can “rely on OPEC to keep the taps turned off for a bit longer,” said Lynch.
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