Brent crude now trades above fiscal breakeven prices for the four biggest oil producers in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia convinced fellow OPEC+ members to keep output largely unchanged.
The shock move by OPEC+ triggered a rally in Brent prices, which rose to almost $70 a barrel. That’s higher than annual average levels needed for the cartel’s largest producers, including Saudi Arabia, to balance their budgets this year.
If oil prices stay at current levels, “we would see fiscal surpluses for the larger Gulf Cooperation Council economies,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. “This provides more fiscal space to support economic activity and recovery.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their price forecasts for Brent after the OPEC decision, while Citigroup Inc. said crude could top $70 before the end of this month.
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