Tuesday, 18 January 2022

Column: Oil prices expected to rise with big variation in projections | Reuters

Column: Oil prices expected to rise with big variation in projections | Reuters

Oil prices will exceed pre-pandemic levels over the next few years but where they will settle remains extremely uncertain, my seventh annual survey of energy market professionals shows.

Brent crude is expected to average $80-85 a barrel through the middle of the decade, up from expectations of $70 before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020.

Expected prices are mostly $10-15 a barrel above where futures were trading at the time the survey was conducted between Jan. 11 and Jan. 14, against a pre-pandemic premium of $10 or less.

The most significant post-pandemic change, however, is the large increase in dispersion of views, with many more respondents forecasting prices far above or far below the average.

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