It was to be a hugely ambitious project on the frigid Gulf of Ob, in Russia’s Far North, a steppingstone in Moscow’s rising ambitions to be a power in liquefied natural gas much as it is in oil and gas delivered by pipeline.
When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia launched his war on Ukraine, the $21 billion project known as Arctic LNG 2 was well underway with dozens of wells drilled, an airport built and most of the equipment ordered.
Now, though, European Union sanctions that prohibit the sale of gas liquefaction equipment to Russia have thrown the giant complex into doubt. The sanctions mean, at best, that just one of three planned liquefaction facilities at Arctic LNG is likely to be completed anytime soon, analysts say.
The project’s key international backer, TotalEnergies, recently wrote off its $4.1 billion investment. It is “difficult to believe that it can be built with the sanctions,” Patrick Pouyanne, the TotalEnergies chief executive, told analysts in late April.
The problems go far beyond L.N.G.
In coming years Russia is likely to be forced into retreat across a wide spectrum of energy. Future growth for its oil and gas exports — for decades the backbone of the country’s economy — are now deeply uncertain. The shock waves from Ukraine even extend into nuclear power, where Finland recently shelved a deal for Russia to build an estimated 7 billion euro ($7.4 billion) reactor.
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