Progress toward an Iranian nuclear deal has thrown the spotlight onto a sizeable cache of crude held by Tehran that could be swiftly dispatched to buyers in the event an agreement gets hammered out.
About 93 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate are currently stored on vessels in the Persian Gulf, off Singapore and near China, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, while Vortexa Ltd. estimates the holdings at 60 to 70 million barrels. In addition, there are smaller volumes in onshore tanks.
“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte. Still, it may take “a bit of time” to iron out insurance and shipping issues, as well as spot and term sales post-sanctions, he said.
The possible full readmittance of Iran to the global crude market, with the potential lifting of US sanctions, comes at complex moment for oil traders. Investors are juggling the countdown toward far tighter European Union curbs on Russian crude flows from December as part of the the bloc’s pushback against the war in Ukraine. In addition, the Biden administration’s mammoth sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will end in October.
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