The energy transition will eventually be a zero-sum game — for one energy source to win, another must lose. The obvious battle is between renewables and fossil fuels. But even within the fossil-fuel camp, natural gas and coal are fighting for supremacy. And one nation is seeking to tip the scales in favor of the former.
Supporters of gas brand it a “bridge fuel” – a stepping stone to allow the world to decarbonize electricity generation by replacing coal-fired power stations with gas-fired plants.
Problematic methane leaks aside, gas faces two obstacles to dethrone king coal: prices and ubiquity. Coal is dirt cheap and plentiful at home in many developing countries; gas, meanwhile, must be imported in liquid form and, in the past two years, became prohibitively expensive following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Unsurprisingly, Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand that once viewed LNG as a not-so-difficult and not-too-expensive way to decarbonize are having second thoughts. China and India, which together account for about one-third of the world’s population, have leaned on coal more heavily in recent years, emphasizing its energy security attributes. That’s propped up coal consumption, which last year reached an all-time high.
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